Captain Obvious

I am really feeling a lot like Sigourney Weaver in the second of the Alien trilogy where she was found drifting in space and after being brought back to earth to account for her actions attempting to save her crew she is being criticized for destroying an alien lifeform.

If you saw the movie you know the question she asks the review panel: “Did IQs drop sharply while I was away?”  Well, I am feeling the same question when I read all the wondrous praise for electric vehicles.

Don’t get me wrong … I have one and love it!  I am looking forward to the next long range versions too.

But, as with any idea, there are the realities of how fast technology adoption is going to take place.  Here is our government’s prediction for the US and around the world a few years ago.  They forecasted that Norway would have 100% electric vehicle sales by 2027 … a good forecast back in 2019.

So, what is the story today?  The good news is that about 90% of new car sales in Norway are electric.  But, and this is the key point in this blog, how many of all cars in Norway are electric? Remember cars last 15 to 20 years, so the existing inventory is staying on the road and will stay on the road until they are no longer economic or convenient to operate.  Pay special attention to convenient … aka long trips for which gasoline vehicles are preferred.

Statistics are hard to find, but given about 65% of all registered vehicles in Norway are electric, that means that about 35% are still fossil fueled.  And, given that most of them are being driven the longer distances, it would be fair to say that Norway is far from carbon neutral on the cars there, and that assumes the electricity being used came from renewables … which it does not.

The good news is that we are moving in the right direction.  The bad news is that we are far from even seeing the finish line … or the Norwegian line if you prefer.  😊

It seems that holidays can cause tensions within a family that are quite unhealthy.  I was always told that fish and relatives begin to stink after three days.  Well, I certainly hope this is not your experience during the holiday season or for that matter anytime in your life.

However, we all know that disparate points of view, petty jealousies, and an abundance of alcohol can become a toxic brew even at these precious times of the year.  It is against this backdrop that many people will refer to the person who mediates and conciliates these situations as the “adult” in the room.

Well then … where are the adults in the room to mediate the current polarization in the United States?  Don’t you remember what we would call these people at times in the past: statemen … OK … statespersons.  Ombudsmen … negotiators … very clever people who realized that finding middle or even higher ground was more important than the bickering that goes nowhere.

As I think about today’s world, I am struck by the lack of adults in the room.  Today’s politics are just like what we used to call a “food fight” in the cafeteria.  Both sides have resorted to bullying tactics rather than diplomacy.

What makes me crazy are those sitting on the sidelines who are just watching these food fights and waiting for the victor to emerge.  As a result, there are no adults in the room and the factions are just throwing bigger and bigger rocks at each other.

We must learn to listen more and to show mature, sound, economic leadership.  Contrary to some who think we can just print money and get our way out of this; most adults are just like you and I who run a business.  You must plan and manage.  There are always wants and desires that are beyond sound budgets and the ability to manage the details.

Planning is no accident.  Read that again a few times.  Then add the phrase doing the right thing never goes out of style.  Mature adults plan to do the right things while always considering more things than what must be done if and when we have the time and resources to do them as well.

Adults in the room pay attention to the big things like sustainability of our life here and around the world and don’t get distracted by things we can’t change.

Perhaps this was best all summarized by the serenity prayer:

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference.

 

The one thing we in the energy industry know is that senior leadership is dominated by the accounting of their business.  Customer satisfaction is often included in the key performance indicators, and reliability is watched for its implications on that as well as due to its operational costs.  However, the bottom-line results are usually the key metrics.

I am waiting with bated breath for the results to be reported early this next year.  Clearly 2021 was a year of recovery from 2020 but 2020 wasn’t as bad for many as first thought.  Residential loads were and are increasing.  Office space has been decimated with the work at home impacts.  We moved most of our manufacturing offshore so that is not coming back except for the occasional flag waving situation.

This past year will probably evidence the sea change in longer term energy use patterns … or will it?

The politicians are all gleefully patting themselves on the back about the future of EVs but supply chain issues will certainly limit the actual increases and disappoint them.  Americans are still in love with their fossil fueled choices and the freedom to make quick pitstops still dominates the landscape.  Sure, surveys indicate people would like an EV but only for around the town driving … so how is that going to reduce the fuel use in the US.

Nope, even the EIA predicts fuel use will go unchecked in the next five to ten years.

It has been interesting to watch how stock prices for electric utilities that promote solar and wind have been trading at a premium over the typical bricks and mortar energy companies.  The accountants will all attest to the simple fact that rooftop solar is far less economically efficient than solar farms.  How will the net metering battles across the US settle out?  Will the regulators agree with the accountants?

Or is this an ideological battle that goes beyond accounting?  Is this truly an existential situation where the fate of our planet is at stake?  If that is true, shouldn’t the accounting be on carbon dioxide rather than corporate economics?  And if that is true, shouldn’t we be managing our transition toward a renewable energy source with consideration of how much the climate benefits from the near term.

Finally, do we really believe what we do here is going to make a big difference around the world when India and China have kicked the can down the road.  How cost effective will energy policies I hear being promoted actually pen out when the accounting is done.

There is one thing for sure.  This year and next will report energy companies hit or exceeded their targets … I just wish they hadn’t moved those targets to get those results.

Happy New Year

Read the following Originally Seen on RedState, Dec 16, 2021 10:00 AM ET By Joe Cunningham |   Full Article Here

I am not sure who told Chevrolet that what we really needed this Christmas was to ugly cry over an ad they produced for the holidays, but whoever it was needs to go sit in the corner and think about what they’ve done. You may have seen the shortened version of this ad, titled “Holiday Ride,” on TV.

But you don’t get the full emotional impact without seeing the extended four-minute version, which is a tear-jerker and hit me harder than listening to my child ask me why Mufasa wasn’t waking up. View the full video here. 

All the jokes aside, this ad is possibly one of the most needed and uplifting messages of the Christmas season — a season in one of the toughest years Americans have faced. Still reeling from COVID-19 and an economic collapse, we have watched as division and partisanship grew, the negative media coverage got worse, people were unable to get back to work, and inflation and shortages have had families struggling.

And this is all on the heels of a divisive presidential election and a pandemic that has taken our family members and loved ones and kept us separated for (in some cases) over a year.

At a time when all this is going on, this Chevy commercial comes out. It is a message about remembering loved ones and spending the time we have with them. It is, at its heart, a secular but great reminder that this time of year is about our families.

Here, you have a man who appears to have recently lost his wife. In an old barn is her old convertible, covered in dust and clearly unused. It’s an emotional moment as the memories flood back. His daughter sees that he’s struggling, so she goes to their small town auto repair shop and asks for help. They sneak in one night, load up the car, and then restore it. The dad sees the restored car, gets emotional, and drives up to his daughter, who begins to cry as she says “It’s what mom would’ve wanted.”

And it’s at that point that you’ll feel that familiar tingle in your eye, if you haven’t already.

A man lovingly remembers his wife. A daughter sees a father struggling. A community comes together to help one of their own. And an emotional reunion. Also, a dog.

We are a little over week away from Christmas, and now more than ever, we need to stop and remember what’s most important. Yes, we have political battles to fight. But for a few moments, let’s also remember that our families need us for more than fighting those battles. They need us to just be there for and with them.

Merry Christmas.

 

 

You remember this children’s story by Hans Christian Anderson:

According to Wikipedia, two swindlers arrive at the capital city of an emperor who spends lavishly on clothing at the expense of state matters. Posing as weavers, they offer to supply him with magnificent clothes that are invisible to those who are stupid or incompetent. The emperor hires them, and they set up looms and go to work.

A succession of officials, and then the emperor himself, visit them to check their progress. Each sees that the looms are empty but pretends otherwise to avoid being thought a fool. Finally, the weavers report that the emperor’s suit is finished. They mime dressing him and he sets off in a procession before the whole city.

The townsfolk uncomfortably go along with the pretense, not wanting to appear inept or stupid, until a child blurts out that the emperor is wearing nothing at all. The people then realize that everyone has been fooled. Although startled, the emperor continues the procession, walking more proudly than ever.

Well, what’s my point?  We are about to see the carbon dioxide levels rise once again and even faster than before because of the silliness of the current policies to abate them!  The adoption of electric vehicles brings forward carbon for about eight years of normal vehicle driving due to the carbon released in the production of the batteries.  All these solar panels and wind turbines do the same, and the economy has returned to normal after the pandemic and industry is trying to catch up with demand.

Another year from now, all this money being poured into the market building more EVs, solar and wind intensifies the situation steepening the rise in carbon levels:  the townsfolk uncomfortably go along with the pretense, not wanting to appear inept or stupid.

Yep, that says it all now, doesn’t it?  Oh, and could it be that they stand to profit from all this in the short run?  Perhaps you remember some prior scams perpetrated on the world under the guise of science?  Do you remember the ozone scare conveniently timed to outlaw existing refrigerants when Dow’s patents ran out?

Susan and I were speaking at an energy efficiency conference with Larry Spielvogel and several others where the acronym WASTE was coined: Welfare Act for Scientists, Technologist and Engineers…the people being paid to study and draw conclusions for us.  It is a great economic punchbowl for government waste into which people place their straws attempting to suck out as much as they can before the game is called due to being ridiculous.

Can you hear that sucking sound?  If not, you will shortly.