Captain Obvious

My recent blog on searching for truth prompted me to take a deeper dive into what likely underlies the problems we all have when we say we are seeking the truth. Intellectuals know the root problem is most often confirmation bias which, according to Wikipedia, is “the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one’s prior beliefs or values.  People display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information, or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes. The effect is strongest for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply entrenched beliefs.”

Therefore, since AI uses written and numeric data from the real world, how can it detect confirmation bias, and if it can’t, isn’t it going to recommend biased results?  Plus, if the consensus on something is what AI is going to spit back at us, how do we train it to also offer contrary opinions, so we know the full story? Here are some excellent suggestions from the University of California at Merced:

“Confirmation bias can lead to miscommunications, escalating conflicts when key pieces of information are overlooked. Consider these three ways to counter confirmation bias to improve your communications, relationships and work product:

Focus on falsification bias – Confirmation bias can be a strong influence, so you will need to actively look for evidence that disproves your point of view.

Get a different perspective – Get out of your echo chamber. Approach someone you know who sees things differently from you and ask them what they are seeing. Be open to their ideas and try to explore them.

Talk with an outside party – Approach a coach or someone you trust to help you impartially explore your thoughts and beliefs without judgment.”

Well now isn’t that interesting. The key to maturing our thinking and avoiding errors in seeking truth is that we should be listening to others, especially those who disagree with our points of view. Seems like we are back at the same conclusion I recommended in my prior blog. Listen to voices that disagree with our preconceived ideas … listen … question … don’t argue. Let the diversity of thought soak in … deeply.

Now, let’s look at how AI coupled with social media can concoct a toxic cocktail. Again, from Wikipedia we learn that confirmation bias is amplified using filter bubbles, or “algorithmic editing”, which displays to individuals only information they are likely to agree with, while excluding opposing views.

Some have argued that confirmation bias is the reason why society can never escape from filter bubbles, because individuals are psychologically hardwired to seek information that agrees with their preexisting values and beliefs. Others have further argued that the mixture of the two is degrading democracy—claiming that this “algorithmic editing” removes diverse viewpoints and information—and that unless filter bubble algorithms are removed, voters will be unable to make fully informed political decisions. Therefore, our search for truth is hard work since we are fighting against both internal and external temptations to seek confirmation for what we already believe.

May our new year be filled with new and loving insights as we learn to listen to each other better. That should be a resolution we can keep if we really care at all.

I assume most of my readers care about the wellness of our planet and are committed to leaving it in better shape for our children and grandchildren. Some believe the emphasis on carbon dioxide and methane in our atmosphere is the key to that. My premise is that a focus on fossil fuels themselves misses the key point: we must reduce the need for fossil fuels – in part by appropriate development of renewables, but more importantly by changing our demand for energy itself.

Several of my blogs have disclosed what drives that demand, which of course depends upon the things the planet produces and consumes under the seemingly inarguable banner of what people need to be comfortable, safe, and healthy. These are not givens for much of the world beyond the wealthy nations, and most of us know that we routinely export our sins to these god forsaken areas, often in the name of noble ideas like EVs and PVs sickening and killing people in our insatiable desire for rare earth elements.

So, you would expect that our largest corporations would be responding to this in ways we can all support. Perhaps not. Susan and I watched the Netflix documentary, Buy Now! The Shopping Conspiracy, that pulls back the curtain on the world’s top brands, exposing the hidden tactics and covert strategies used to keep all of us locked in an endless cycle of buying – no matter the cost. The recent articles about the health challenges in our food chain point out UPFs … ultra processed foods, that are enhanced with unhealthy ingredients to drive up consumption.

Here is an excellent article on this from the New York Times: The Healthier Eating Challenge: The Healthier Eating Challenge: Why You Crave Ultraprocessed Foods – The New York Times  You will learn that you are being deliberately deceived into thinking you are still hungry … so you eat more! Do you remember the ad for Lay’s potato chips: “Betcha you can’t eat just one!” You guessed it … food processors are deliberately and intentionally designing foods this way. And it’s no surprise to most that bars intentionally provide free salty snacks to drive patron’s thirst for their profitable beverages.

We are in a vicious cycle of deception and greed that deliberately deceives us into believing that corporations are doing the right things for all citizens and are responsible for their products from production through ultimate disposition. I was suspicious of course, but little did I know just how devious this all was, and that it had even penetrated almost all the food we eat. This is certainly why, in part, we are seeing the rise in cancers, obesity, etc.

Yes, we are more sedentary for sure, but more importantly, we have been drugged into a coma of indifference about so many things. The cumulative effect is going to be much worse for our children and grandchildren if it is not acknowledged and addressed.

Please do take some time to watch Buy Now! on Netflix. You will be outraged. That’s a nice beginning to engagement. Then, consider processed foods in your life … read the labels … if there are more than three or four ingredients in them, your health is probably being compromised. Check the ones you eat most online. Do your part. Eat healthily!

Perhaps you saw the movie A Few Good Men with its famous ending scene where the of the Guantanamo Army Base commander bellows at the prosecuting attorney, “You can’t stand the truth!” Yes, the base commander had done something terrible. Yes, it was good theatre to watch the plot work out. And, once again, we learned that there are often many levels upon which to try to understand the truths’ leaders live with.

The recent death of Jimmy Carter has brought forward retrospectives both good and bad, and most of us just want to remember the good when someone dies, especially when we believe in our hearts that they were good people. After all, what’s the point of criticizing a person when it can’t change situations, even if that criticism is deserved on some level.

History is hard to reconstruct fairly because it is most often written by the victors. So, they tend to color the record, forget to tell the other side of the situation, and often exaggerate the claims. Here is an excellent summary of the public views of Jimmy Carter at the time and over time: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jimmy-carter-retrospective-public-opinion-cbs-news-poll-analysis/

The summary I most often hear now is that Jimmy Carter was a good man but a lousy president. This article concludes the same. We did have a second oil embargo causing an energy crisis that transformed the world. Out of that, he was the first president that set us on a path to energy independence, which we now are close to achieving. He was right insisting we all had to “do our part individually,” but that wasn’t popular then and remains unpopular now.

Are we fair when we use public opinion as the criteria for good or bad? Carter was right on our personal accountability, and it is even truer today. Today’s electorate does not want any accountabilities … they want others to simply make problems go away. As a result, we are overweight and lazy in almost every dimension of life. Perhaps we have replaced needs with wants because we don’t want accountability at all.

Yes, the interest rates under Carter were crushing. I literally couldn’t afford to sell our house and move into another one at the same price because my mortgage was at 8% and the mortgage rate then was about 16%. But I never thought I should blame him for that. The world situation was unsettled in the middle east … just like it is today … but actually a bit safer back then even though we didn’t know it … yet.

Somewhat serendipitously, Susan and I have started watching an Amazon Prime four-part series covering Winston Churchill on how he led Britain through wars, somewhat by the skin of his teeth, but largely because of his incredible talent as a speaker and leader. He was a realist in his remarks, recognizing it was going to be brutally tough on everyone, but the goal was worth the sacrifices. Where is that kind of leadership today? Could it even exist?

History is written by the victors, and I hope it is kind to Jimmy Carter. What point is there in pointing out the flaws of a very good man, who upon hindsight might appear to have made errors in judgement? I like our pastor’s approach to funerals. He captures the wonderful and humorous stories about their lives and does include what we can all learn from their challenges but avoids outright criticism. After all, what’s the point?

How many things do we do each day vs. how many things are we being forced to do because others aren’t doing what they should? Are our lives being run or are we running our lives?

I have always found it a bit funny when some of my retired male friends talk about their “honey do lists,” which by the name need no explanation. Most of the time, I sense these were truly important family priorities … often needed repairs.

One can always put off things like this, claiming we don’t have the time or the resources, and that may be true. However, I am increasingly feeling that the clutter in our lives is largely a distraction from things that really matter.  I call this the tyranny of the urgent.  Let me poke at your conscience by asking how many times you fail to return a phone call or answer an email because you think you are too busy?

Really? … it is one thing to respond by alerting the calling party that you have something that is getting in the way, but that you will get back to them by this or that time or date. No, you are being rude and frankly damaging the trust formula in a relationship when you simply fail to respond. Let’s face it … once you simply ignore the message, your day will fill to the brim with other things, and in most likelihood, you will completely forget the call within a day.

Take stock of how your day is consumed and evaluate what it says about your priorities. Are you mindlessly watching the unending political nonsense as a result of the last election? Are you obsessed with video games? What about Facebook or Instagram?

I am not trying to ruin your fun … just asking whether the time is being managed or you are being managed by others or distractions. Be aware, the biggest influence on your life today is social media and that is being driven by Artificial Intelligence, aka, AI.

Devious people are at work trying to distract you, minutes at a time, from what you are trying to do, and every time you click that link to check out some audacious idea, you are giving these agents the specific insights they want and need to continue distracting you.

I covered the term “click bait” in a prior blog, and that is probably the most obvious. But every time you try to buy something you need, you are also giving these agents just what they want so they can blast you with the media trying to get your attention.

One of the most insidious temptations today are the false social media posts who claim to be interested in your ideas. As a male, these are often seemingly beautiful, lonely young ladies who seem to be wanting to start a conversation by just asking to have you friend them. Women are being targeted as well. The scammers will make you feel you have found a soulmate and gobble up your time. Plus, as you do waste away your time, they will set their hooks and drain your bank account.

Warning to any scammers reading this post: I report you immediately.

So, given that most of my readers have more sand in the bottom of their life’s hourglass than the top, please consider every hour you have left. Enjoy the time with recreational ideas and do stay on top of issues that matter to you. But, most of all, pay closer attention to the people in your life … all of them.

A recent event with one adult male in my life struck straight to the heart when he said that I was the only adult male role model for him. Scary thought you might rightfully say. But, no, his life was being consumed by the endless chatter and distractions, and he needed someone to show him they cared and would offer him a safe place to share his frustrations and challenges.

Be that special person by showing people in your life you truly care.

Diversity, Equity and Inclusion … aka DEI … seems like such an obviously good idea.  How can you argue with that principle. Well, just like the Inflation Reduction Act, which did exactly the opposite, the devil is always in the details.