Can we Count on Commitments?

I remember when we were asked to reduce speed limits to 55 mph because the energy crisis in the late 1970s was the “moral equivalent of war.”  But, I really wonder whether we have lost that sense of national commitment to reduce energy use when I feel going 75-80 in a posted 70 mph speed zone poses the real danger of being mowed down by those trying to get around me at 90 mph and higher speeds!  I do get a sordid sense of gratitude occasionally when I pass them pulled over on the side of the road getting a speeding ticket, but not often enough.

Everyone in the United States seems to say they are concerned about climate change.  But, it seems no one is concerned any longer about the trash we produce, the single use water bottles we throw away, or the appetite we have for things that are unnecessary for daily life.  This is all in stark contrast to the way Germans are responding to their energy crisis.  There is something to consider here.

The recent article in the Wall Street Journal points to the results of a national push to conserve and to do without. Read more here.  Actually, I am not really surprised.  Europeans have always been more tolerant of discomfort and doing without.  We used to be that way.  I still remember my parents talking about the Great Depression and how they conserved.  The joke was that my mother still had food from that period in her freezer.

Some of you will remember that the electric utilities used to make requests during heat waves that customers turn off appliances and set up their thermostats.  Utilities could and actually did count on these as predictable responses.  But, as the frequency of these requests increased, they noticed that customers would not respond to the same extent, and if you pushed these requests to more than two or three days in a row, they virtually disappeared.

This was not lost on the public service commissions nor the utility planners.  Hardware based programs emerged to directly cut water heaters and air conditioners off and some incentives were offered to customers for this inconvenience and/or loss of control.  Over the past few decades, smart thermostats have been added to the portfolio.  But, in most cases, the consumer has the right to opt out.  Yes, they may lose the economic benefit, but the electric system loses the safety net it had counted upon for system reliability.

And that is the rub, now isn’t it.  Our grid reliability hangs in the balance.  We all will suffer if the utility can’t control voltage and frequency.  Their only choice is to cut the power off.  We have watched that happen out West.  What do customers do then?  They buy generators.

Are we thinking clearly with all this as we pursue carbon reduction goals by asking customers to participate in these thermostat programs?  Might it not become terribly important that we educate customers that simply dropping out and buying a generator to eliminate their sense of obligation to a greater good is perhaps ignoring the obvious?

 

Profits of Doom

No, I did not misspell the word prophet.  It is a deliberate play on words.

We have all seen the person holding the placard saying “Repent, the end is near!” usually along with a scriptural reference or two to validate the prediction.  Some might defend this person for their evangelical zeal, but most will dismiss him or her as delusional and irrelevant.

Almost everyone knows the media loves to scare people … it sells papers.  “If it bleeds, it leads!”  We all see examples of this every night when they offer some tantalizing tidbit soundbite at the beginning of the news broadcast in the hope that we will stay tuned to hear it.  And, of course, they put it at the very end, and all too often we find out it is far less interesting than promised. For example, “Study regarding link between homework and cancer!”  Only to hear at the end of the broadcast they found none.

So, it was a surprise to me to see an article offering the opposite point of view just a few days after the doomsday clock update. Read the USA Today article here. 

It was refreshing to see a news article that promoted reason and care as antidotes to the fear life exposes us to.  Most of us have read Stephen Covey’s book The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People where he cautions us to look carefully inward and “begin with the end in mind.”  There are so many other remarkably helpful books written suggesting how we can stay emotionally balanced when life dishes out disasters.  And, we admire those who demonstrate that “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” to quote my adorable wife.  Of course, she also reminds me that “if Mama ain’t happy, ain’t nobody happy!”

So, how do we reset the doomsday clock in our lives?  Surely this requires more than dismissing the warnings completely.  There must be at least some truth to the fear mongering … or the intellectuals would cry foul, wouldn’t they?

Not necessarily.  There is a lot of money to be made scaring people, playing on their insecurities, and pandering to their selfish desires.  One of my favorite speakers, Suzanne Shelton used to state that beer commercials often implied that drinking their brand was going to improve the odds of a guy “scoring.”  And, we all know the Dos Equis beer commercials with the “most interesting man in the world.”  Somehow he is always surrounded by beautiful women.

Perhaps the most disgusting example of this is the bitcoin fallout from all the ads indicating “fortune favors the brave,” implying that you are wisely investing if it requires overcoming your fears of loss.  Haven’t we learned anything from Las Vegas where you can indeed drive there in a $100,000 Mercedes and come home in a $500,000 Greyhound Bus.

Perhaps the best advice is also the simplest.  Follow the money!  How is it that the author profits from the message being delivered?  In my case, I have no monetary implications.  I only offer thoughts because I am concerned for my fellow citizens of this world that we are being duped by those who do plan to profit from their messaging.  That is the key to unraveling it all.

Always follow the money.

 

 

 

For Whom the Doomsday Clock Ticks

I guess it is a sign of when you grew up.  Ernest Hemingway’s book, For Whom the Bell Tolls, was a novel written as a mixture of firsthand observation and creative writing in the early 1940s about the war in Spain.  Sometimes books get remembered because their title is provocative.  Other times, it is because there is a deeper message captured in the title that takes on meaning because you read the book.

This morning, we read an assessment of the world existential situation each year for the past 75 years, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has published a new Doomsday Clock, suggesting just how close – or far – humanity is from the brink if total destruction.  This latest edition was revealed Tuesday at 10 a.m. EST.  It showed us at the closest in history … surprise surprise! Read the article here.

Historically, the clock has measured the danger of nuclear disaster, but that’s not the only apocalyptic scenario being considered today. Climate change, bioterrorism, artificial intelligence, and the damage done by mis-and disinformation have now been included in the mix of possible cataclysms. For the past two years, the Doomsday Clock has stood at 100 seconds to midnight, closer to destruction than at any point since it was created in 1947.

What should we be thinking?  Here is the conclusion as of Tuesday morning:

Are there any signs of hope?

The scientists and academics behind the Doomsday Clock said there is reason to put faith in humanity’s ability to confront existential threats. The coronavirus pandemic demonstrated that health practitioners and policymakers are “emboldened” to work together in moments of crisis, said Suzet McKinney, principal and director of life sciences for the real estate company Sterling Bay.

Renewable energy technology is also poised to become the world’s largest source of energy within perhaps the next five years, said Sivan Kartha, a senior scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute and lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report.

Kartha added he is encouraged by the climate activism of the world’s youngest generations, who will face the consequences of failures to constrain fossil fuel use and slow global warming. “That’s something to definitely put some serious hope in,” Kartha said.

Do I really need to dissect how silly this is?  Can you see how alarmism has replaced reason?  How do you equate climate concerns with global nuclear war?  That of course is a doomsday scenario.  Our planet has adjusted to much greater swings in climate in its history.  We will again.

Plus, renewables have done absolutely nothing to mitigate the increasing carbon dioxide levels, so where is the outrage over that?  Renewables (PV and wind) have, in fact, increased the rate of carbon dioxide is being released into the environment.  Shouldn’t that be a concern?

It is so clear that climate activism in the world’s youngest generations shows how our education system has brainwashed so many.  It has also failed to produce critical thinking individuals.  Plus, all too many who know this is all a farce are sitting on the sidelines hoping it will all pass.

I know a lot of very smart people … very very smart people … and not one of them will tell the emperor he is nude besides me.

It is ironic that today’s youth no longer can read the hands on a clock, so maybe it is not surprising they can’t even understand the picture shown in this blog!

Tolerating Complexity and Mystery

Our postmodern society prizes technology and scientific excellence.  We celebrate this daily in the news as well as with the countless awards offered.  There are hundreds of journals and books written each month that tout the latest and the greatest.  Some of these are clearly fads, but others do become products we learn to rely upon in our daily lives.

Few today live without a cellphone.  Most of them become so essential to our daily lives that we form an addiction to them.  Therapists are needed to “wean” people off them because they are ruining relationships.  Family gatherings now often start with a basket or bowl into which guests put them so they can have a meaningful visit.  But this is often not without a fight.

The constant bombardment of digital information has created another set of problems.  People are thinking less about issues and are trusting others to direct their paths.  Ask your friends how many of them use Ways to guide them while driving.  And watch how some side streets become blocked when Ways directs traffic around a wreck on the major roads.

This does permit us tremendous efficiency in our lives, but it is also bringing about some levels of laziness in our thinking.  Go ahead and watch how service workers “make change” in fast food restaurants.  They don’t know how to do that if the cash register won’t do it for them!  Our son literally can’t sign his name since cursive is no longer taught in schools.

We are increasingly becoming so dependent upon others that the age old do it yourself projects no longer make any sense.  I remember taking the tubes out of the radio when it didn’t work to bring them into the electronics store, testing them, and finding the one needing replacement.  Now, you throw away the device.

All this trust seems to now push us into herd mentalities in ways we never anticipated. We are so trusting of our government or scientific community that we pay for their ideas without asking for proof that it will gain the desired result.

I am watching so many people sign up for “no cost” solar installations and sign 20-25 year agreements to pay much more than they would have paid if they had stayed normal electricity customers.  They didn’t read and/or didn’t understand what they were signing.  PT Barnum was right.

Worse yet, we elect our leaders on superficially appealing notions …

Ugh …

Can Democracy Solve Our Big Problems?

Our country just went through midterm elections with the reminder that we are far from a consensus on solving the big problems facing us and the world at large.  So many of the races were razer thin margins, and neither side is happy about where we are.  So, how do we move forward?

Can consensus be achieved on anything any longer?  Are we doomed to fight for some ideal answer despite the compelling statistics that speak volumes about our silliness?  Defunding the police, open borders, etc. may answer the needs for a certain point of view, but fly in the face of community wellness.  And, just because we stop doing this or that doesn’t compel the rest of the world to do the same … in fact, it gives them opportunity to continue down the wrong paths.

It is a funny conversation point, but many of my professional friends will use the phrase: If I were King or God I would do … to point to knowing the right answer that is simply not popular.  After all, our political process brings forth charismatic people who profess to give us what we want to get elected, and then almost never deliver on those promises.  We even shrug our shoulders in resignation of this fact, yet we continue believing democracy can and will solve big existential questions.

As I think about the attacks of 9 -11, I am reminded about how this “common enemy” brought our nation together with resolve.  We seemed to realize, if only for a time, that we needed to ban together and protect our national interests.  However, we still maintain some pretty silly precautions at our airports.  My wife was bringing me a new tube of toothpaste that we always special order and they confiscated it.

I remember when then President Jimmy Carter declared the energy crisis of 1978 the moral equivalent of war and unilaterally lowered speed limits to 55. Most Americans complied.  I remember when New Zealand shut off the electric hot water in homes for months during a drought to keep the grid up.  New Zealanders complied.  I doubt either of these decisions would have resulted from a democratic vote.

But, the underlying problem is that we do not know with any certainty how to fix the really big problems since, in part, we are so interdependent as a world community.  We put organizations in place like NATO and The United Nations, and the G7/G8/G20 Summit to at least discuss these questions and the fact that the number changes with world politics indicates the challenge.

I formed the Peak Load Management Alliance to facilitate a constructive dialogue on how demand response mechanisms could be worked into electric and natural gas markets.  Membership consists of the industry counterparties (energy suppliers and large users) along with enabling legislative and regulatory market participants.  The organization can only offer ideas and forums for dialogue but has been rather successful transforming the energy industry … in part because everyone wants it to succeed.

Notably absent are those who are not interested in its success … the energy generators whose long term growth has been stymied by this upstart social good.  They know their position is simply in denial of the right long term answers.  They know they are wrong, but they are just not willing to agree with it.  So, they attempt to work behind the scenes at the ISOs to make the rules more and more stringent, hoping this right answer will eventually go away.

We should be learning something about our democratic process through all this … but are we even looking?