Author: joel@waterfallhouse.net

It is fascinating to watch how economics and engineering respond to the supply/demand interactions over time.  The oil industry has always been characterized by boom-bust cycles.  New resources are discovered, prices plummet, demand rises, and supply shortages push prices higher.

Rich resources are eventually depleted, constraining supply and driving up prices; engineers then develop enhanced recovery methods.  One of the most significant of these in the past few decades, known as fracking, combines horizontal drilling with hydraulic fracturing of the resource itself, both of which enable higher extraction rates from a given resource area.

Our EPA has, of course, been watching this evolution, and environmentalists have always had concerns about this process.  Well, they now have very good reasons to object: America’s Biggest Oilfield Fracking is a Mess

So, what will this do now?  It is clearly a mess.  It will undoubtedly raise prices.  There may even be political reactions of almost any conceivable type. 

One reaction is that this should be a wake-up call to once again think about the future of our dependence on oil, which seems to have diminished under the current administration.  “Drill baby drill” can’t be the correct response.

Another reaction is to deny the importance of the consequences until we get something akin to the groundwater pollution problems exposed in the movie Erin Brockovich.  While good theatre, you all remember how hard it was to stop Pacific Gas and Electric in that portrayal.  Fighting big oil at this time would seem to be an uphill battle, even if it were clear we had all the proof needed to win the argument.

What we should be seeing here is the realization that an extractive mindset always leads to bad outcomes.  These are limited natural resources.  We are not making more oil, and the idiotic idea that we can grow crops to replace our dependence upon oil only moves the problems to another area.

It also does not matter that the planet’s population may not increase much from this point on.  We already have too many people, and those in less fortunate areas want what we have … and there won’t be enough to go around for much longer.

At some point, we must admit that we can’t engineer our way out of the problem.  That includes ruling out fusion.  Remember that 97% of the scientific community agrees with their funders.  The joke within that community is that fusion is 50 years away from reality and always will be.  Plus, for those of you who want to point to our sun as proof this is feasible, please consider what we already know about the Sun’s damage to our world:

• Solar flares release intense bursts of radiation that can disrupt communication systems on Earth.
• Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can send charged particles toward Earth, potentially damaging satellites and power grids.
• Ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun can cause skin cancer and other health issues in humans.
• High-energy particles from solar storms can pose risks to astronauts in space.
• The sun’s heat can contribute to climate change, leading to extreme weather events.

Prolonged exposure to solar radiation can degrade materials and structures on Earth.  So, you want this as our answer to our future energy needs??

We are now in a truly fracking mess.

Have you noticed that most people parking in handicapped spots these days are as mobile as anyone else?  Well, this abuse has now spread to other inconveniences, most notably boarding airplanes.  Perhaps it is just natural that people take advantage of almost everything these days. But this brazen level of this abuse is stunning.

Where has the sense of morality gone?  The Wall Street Journal has a great article on the boarding process of airlines: Miraculous Healing aboard Modern Aircraft 

“If the airport is packed and you don’t want to wait in line, act injured and ask for a wheelchair.”  This Jetway Jesus ruse isn’t going over well with other travelers, especially people with disabilities and those who have paid extra for priority boarding. A healthcare worker from Tampa, Fla., was on a flight to Los Angeles in October where around 15 people needed a wheelchair to board and only five of them needed it on the other side. “That’s some good healing right there!” she said.

My previous blogs highlighted interpersonal abuse with phones, texts, and driving behaviors.  What is going on?  Is it a sense of entitlement or more about cleverness? 

My take is that, just like people will not give up their seat to the elderly, it is just another form of self-centeredness like that millennial interview in last week’s blog.  After all, where did she get the right to think her employer would not hold her to the same standards as the other employees?

Don’t get me wrong, I also meet some wonderful youngsters who clearly live by the same standards we were brought up to uphold.  It is just a bit unsettling to see the emergence of so many who only seem concerned about what’s in it for themselves.

Clearly, these individuals are not followers of the Jesus who spoke so often about putting others ahead of ourselves.  The only explanation I can come up with is that we are observing the collapse of good parenting models coupled with a propensity to give everyone participation trophies rather than hold excellence up as desirable.  

Watch for these miraculous healing results the next time you fly.

How did we get to the point where nobody returns phone calls or emails?  Why is everyone driving as if there were a contest to see who could get somewhere first? 

I understand that we are all bombarded with messages and that most phone calls are telemarketers.  But even our “closest” friends seem way too comfortable ignoring our attempts to reach out.

Remember when people would give their seat to a pregnant woman, an elder, or someone juggling three kids and a diaper bag? Now? You’re lucky if they even look up from their phones. The earbuds stay in, the eyes remain down, and we are ignored. 

Courtesy has always been about being polite: showing behavior that is respectful and considerate of other people.  When did this go out of style?  We used to call it manners.  It was a sign of “good breeding” and an essential part of being liked.

Maybe the root of all this is that they simply don’t care any longer about being liked.  It is now OK to offend everyone with their dress, hair color, and general behavior.  Perhaps that is the only explanation for the irony that the same people who now want to focus on being nice to non-normative LGBTQ++ aren’t friendly to the majority of normative ones.

Please note that I did not use the word normal.  Normative means the majority … the center of the distribution of behaviors or attributes … the masses.  Even TV shows now seem to abhor normative, nice, polite, caring behaviors.

Could it be that the root of all this is that this generation no longer sees a future for their lives?  Are they so sure the world is going to end due to global warming that they will never reach retirement?  Are their job prospects so dim that they are deeply depressed?

The statistics about suicide rates seem to point to this.  The fact that our young employees never expressed the willingness to “suck it up” and do what it takes to truly learn a job does make me think they don’t believe they have the time to achieve success.

Please think about all this when you ask your suppliers for proposals or resumes from job applicants.  They take a lot of work to prepare, and you are usually rather picky about how you evaluate them.  Yet, my experience was that utilities have become rude in their treatment of these efforts.  They don’t inform the proposers of the review progress.  Half the time they cancel the proposal process without notifying anyone.  And God forbid we ask for an honest debrief when we lose so we can do a better job of proposing the next time.

The millennial job interview roaming the Internet does seem all too common. Notice that the job applicant feels she has to approve of her employer rather than the other way around.  Where did this entitlement attitude come from?  Is it the result of the idea that everyone gets a trophy and that grades are an antiquated, elitist concept?

Well, there is one thing for sure.  Common courtesy is no longer common!

The Wall Street Journal just featured the toy that’s sold out in America’s biggest retailers and just topped Amazon’s charts on the busiest shopping day of the year.  It was made by a tech startup that had absolutely no clue how to make a toy.  Nearly a decade ago, the engineers at an obscure Silicon Valley company called Nex began plugging away at an iPhone app that would use artificial intelligence to track basketball shots.

Please do read the full article and think about the fatal flaw in this product design: The Hot New Game Console for this Holiday Season.

After several years, they decided it was time to pivot from software to hardware, convinced investors they weren’t crazy for doing that and came perilously close to running out of money.  The toy they ended up building is a sleek block in pastel colors that sits under the TV and looks like a Rubik’s Cube which essentially tracks people in front of it.

It’s technically a gaming console, but at $249, it’s less expensive than traditional consoles even with the $89 annual subscription. It’s also marketed to people who aren’t in the habit of buying gaming systems: families with young children.  Remember the Nintendo Wii?  It is essentially that without the handheld controllers … it maps the movement using AI.

It even appeals to parents who ordinarily wouldn’t let their kids anywhere near screens. With a camera tracking their motion, users control the Playground not with a hand-held controller but with their own hands and movements. Instead of vegging on the sofa, the users end up bouncing around the living room. As a result, parents actually like that it gives their children a workout.

So far so good … so what’s wrong?  Can you see the fatal flaw? 

It is too easy to knock this idea off with phone software and/or the cameras on a PC, iPad, etc.  Why be in the hardware business if you really don’t need to be. 

Sorry folks at Nex.  Your days are numbered … unless you pivot to the more general market using cell phones, iPads, and even the cameras on PCs.  Your original idea was correct … there is absolutely no reason for one more device in the home.  Yours is no exception … over time.  Don’t become a pet rock!

Things have been unfolding quicker and quicker these last few months.  This blog started out weeks ago first indicating the Wall Street Journal tone had shifted pretty starkly toward outright criticism of climate alarmists.  Just this week, they released another article summarizing the climate alarmists are essentially dead in the water.  What an admission.  Read it for yourself: Affordability Wins!

While it was weeks ago that the emperor was declared butt naked, notice then however that the Wall Street Journal hid under the cover of an editorial board with no names to declare it to be true: Wind and Solar Realities

“The claim that tax credits reduce electric rates is contradicted by experience. Wind and solar must be backed by peaking gas plants or batteries, which both cost more than three times as much baseload power. Renewables also cause price spikes when there are power shortages, and they require more transmission investments to balance fluctuations in loads and frequencies.”

This should come as no surprise as proven by other more recent articles in the Wall Street Journal: Europe Gets Religion on Green and Leftist Dreams Hit Reality
All of this is why Texas’s residential power prices have risen some 40% over the last seven years. The renewable lobby says the financial benefits of the tax credits are passed onto electric customers, which may be true when state-regulated utilities build projects. But the credits usually pad the profits of independent generators.

The best way to make the grid reliable again is to let supply and demand work in energy markets without the distortions of mandates and subsidies. The GOP budget bill takes a step in that direction that should be welcomed.

So many of my Captain Obvious blogs over the year have repeated this theme. It is the bedrock of good energy policy. Mandates and subsidies distort markets and, unfortunately, provide ample opportunities for opportunists to rob under the banner of innovation.

Don’t get me wrong. We do need a full portfolio of ideas, if for no other reason so that we can point to where they work and don’t. We once again need to include nuclear and hydro in new construction. We know we need more of both. But the naïve idea that wind and solar would save the day and bring about future utopia was far-fetched to say the least. However, only a few besides me would declare the emperor nude.

For a while, I just thought it was a form of being polite and inclusive … you know … like tolerating your less than brilliant relatives when they show up at your door to stay for a few days carrying their overnight clothes in Piggly Wiggly bags.

Then, I thought it could just be the loving attitudes toward those who can’t take care of themselves we are commanded to do in our faith traditions.

But now I must admit, after watching US politics over the past few years, there is something terribly wrong with humanity that it has become so polarized it can’t find common ground solutions to anything. Common sense is simply not common.  The complexities in life seem beyond the intellectual reach of just about everyone today. The mirage of simple superficially appealing notions is still so alluring it beckons the masses to follow truly stupid ideas.  

Therefore, it was refreshing to see this latest article pointing out the gaping holes and incorrect math of other recent alarmist tirades: Climate Study Retraction

Wake up people! Pay attention! Or, as one of my favorite lines in the movie Aliens by the Marine Private Hudson when encountering them: “Maybe you haven’t been keeping up with current events, but we just got our asses kicked, pal!”  It is time for sobriety and seriousness.

Look … it is fine to admit when you celebrate a memory such as Thanksgiving or Christmas and fail to dwell on the myth vs reality of the details.  These are wonderful times for us to be with friends and family and be thankful.  It is quite another to claim them as factual accounts.  They should change our heart attitudes toward those less fortunate.

These holidays should comfort the afflicted and afflict the comfortable.