The phrase “figures don’t lie, but liars figure” has been attributed to Mark Twain and others. That doesn’t quite keep up with our modern data world where, as the precision and time-based data-tracking awareness improves, we can now say we infer things that are simply not true reflections of our history.
Climate alarmists love to quote the “fact” that storms have gotten more severe recently and that the damage they cause has catastrophically increased damage costs. A careful review of all the hurricane data has repeatedly shown that this fact is not true … storms have not gotten any more severe. Damages have risen of course. That is due to the fact that we now have a lot more people in harm’s way and have built enormously more expensive dwellings along our coasts.
As we summered here in Old Saybrook, we finally took in the museum honoring the famous actress Kathryn Hepburn who up here, made it her home, retired and died here. Pictures and movies of her first home that washed out to sea, along with the devastation of the hurricane of 1938 are in it. I remember our shack in East Hampton was on stilts because the first one was taken out to sea by that hurricane, along with just about every other dwelling along the coast here.
According to Wikipedia: “It made landfall on Eastern Long Island as a Category 3 hurricane on September 21, 1938, and it is estimated to have killed 682 people and damaged or destroyed more than 57,000 homes. It remains the most powerful and deadliest hurricane to ever strike New York and New England in history, perhaps eclipsed in landfall intensity only by the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635.”
It just so happens that our recent guest whose lineage came through Old Saybrook asked us to join he and his wife as we met with staff from the historical society here. They produced several books (one 660 pages long) on his family history. Other books we found included some first hand accounts of that hurricane in 1635 which completely flooded the coastal point in Old Saybrook. It took every house in that area out to sea.
What made that storm so devastating of course was that there was no warning. There is a lot to be said about our modern technologies to warn us about things like this. We can now alert people to evacuate, seek higher ground, etc. Our modern mathematics offers “cones of uncertainty” for the path that communicates better than one liners in the newspapers or on the radio of that day. The devastation would have been the same in 1635 but lives would have been saved for sure.
But, before I discuss the graphic at the beginning of this blog, please carefully read that Wikipedia segment below. Have there been prior hurricanes that were worse? Why don’t we know just how bad the Hurricane of 1635 was? Isn’t it perfectly clear that we simply did not have the measurement techniques back then. In fact, this area was not inhabited by many Europeans before then and the Native Americans did not take measurements or keep records.
Read the full Wikipedia article: “The storm developed into a tropical depression on September 9 off the coast of West Africa, but the United States Weather Bureau was unaware that a tropical cyclone existed until September 16 when ships reported strong winds and rough seas 350 miles northeast of San Juan; by then, it was already a well-developed hurricane and had tracked westward toward the southeastern Bahamas.” I rest my case.
Now, back to that graphic. If you read anything about Hurricane Erin, it will be that it was a Category 5 storm. Really? Just because it briefly intensified to that level? We never defined storms that way in the past … since we didn’t know. How many storms have there been in our data records that also hit this level on their paths long before they made landfall?
You all probably remember Al Gore’s insistence that hurricanes had increased in number and intensity. He just took a 20-year period where that appeared to be true, but that was not reflective of the full dataset, which shows no such increase in number nor intensity.
However, we now have a new type of data, made possible by satellite measurements, which was unavailable before the 1960s.
The conclusion is that we are better off with all this modern data accuracy and timeliness, but it brings with it a lot of questions we can’t answer about trends back where we thought we knew what we saw and measured.
Finally, if you are still clinging to that global warming mirage offered by Al Gore and his cronies, read Konin’s book “Unsettled,” which debunks much of the hurricane nonsense.
Prophets of doom are more often than not profiting from fear. That we know for sure. But if you need proof, watch toward the end of the documentary Planet of the Humans where Al Gore and Richard Branson are being interviewed about their work promoting their green agenda. They are asked, “Do you consider yourselves prophets?” One of them cleverly responded, “That depends on how you spell profits!” And they laughed hysterically.



