Drone Warfare

An article in the New York Times offers a wonderful, if not chilling, review of the war in Ukraine using drones.  Here is the link: https://tinyurl.com/NY-Times-Drone-Warfare

The military approach to conflict and outright war has changed irrevocably, and much faster than the underlying questions in ethics and moral hazards have been asked and answered.  Plus, we have been naive to assume our adversaries will play by the same rules we use.  It is ironic that we Americans think this way given it was our renegade ragtag army using “jungle warfare” that defeated the British.

We used to think of drone warfare as high altitude unmanned vehicles dropping hellfire missiles.  The movie I suggest you watch is Eye in the Sky.  At first, it would appear to be just another movie about our battle with terrorists … but I see it is a much bigger set of questions it raises. Take a look for yourself and decide: Click here to view the trailer.

As in all of life today, things are complicated. Are we OK with targeted assassinations as a standard part of a mission?  Are we ready to use autonomous drones with facial recognition to do that?  Perhaps more importantly, will our enemies do this?  And, if so, can we detect and block those attempts?

We all think of secret service agents protecting key people in dark glasses with earbuds communicating with surveillance and control centers.  Why do we think this is enough today?  Haven’t we learned anything from the Chinese viruses … we are all in the cross hairs of nefarious agents.  It wouldn’t take much to poison us all using our water supplies.

Modern movies about existential threats focus on alien invasions, while we assume our aliens here on this planet are seeking asylum.  Take a fresh look at the Middle East and tell me how we are going to bring about peace on earth.  Do we really think hostage releases of 30 Hamas combatants for each Israeli citizen sends the message that either side should seek peace?  Is this going to heal the wounds and millennia of hate?

Can we just stop and work through some basic questions?  Are we the savior of the world or are we mostly interested in the wellbeing of our country?   I hear Trump wants an “Iron Dome” like that of Israel.  That assumes we are at risk with the ICBM weapon.  The movie Top Gun Maverick seems to be prescient: Are we going to fund conventional warfare when drones may be better.

Watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU

If we are not ready to face these questions and act it will be too late since our adversaries are eagerly seeking this type of capability … and may soon have it.

Shifting to “The Long Game”

It is nice to see some sanity finally emerging in the rhetoric and public posturing of major players in the energy industry, away from alarmism and grandstanding.  Pundits in the energy business are now pointing out that companies are shifting to “playing the long game” in their energy strategies.  They have been stung by greenwashing, where they tried to pretend they were doing more than they actually were. They have shifted their focus to long-term goals and strategies rather than immediate or short-term gains, prioritizing sustainable success over quick wins. 

Here’s a more detailed explanation of shifting to the long game: It involves thinking ahead and making decisions that will benefit you in the future, even if it means sacrificing short-term gains.  It’s about building a strong foundation for future success through consistent effort and strategic planning. It requires patience and persistence because the rewards of playing the long game may not be immediate. 

If you study the literature on the long game, you will see a repeated emphasis on education and building relationships.  The implication is that perhaps we really don’t know all we should or even must know to reflect on a balanced perspective … humbly admitting we don’t know what we don’t know.

Ah … humility … an essential ingredient in the long game … and perhaps the key attribute that must be present to execute the long game well.  And relationships … especially with those who possibly even hate you right now and are out to get you.  So, instead of doubling down and thinking that destroying them is the ultimate win, perhaps there is room for what all major religions of the world point to as the answer: to love one another.

Our egos, the opposite of humility, point to power and revenge as rightful answers to what we perceive is wrong with the world.  We want to control the uncontrollable rather than learn to live with natural constraints and sustainability in the world.  We are on an extractive mad dash to rape the planet thinking the long game is solar and wind plus an EV in every garage.  What lunacy!

Let’s all move to the middle where we once again question everything and rethink everything that truly matters.  Our politicians and media are not doing us any favors when they incite anything contrary to humility in and love for one another.

Micah 6:8 sums it up nicely: What does the Lord require of you but to do justly, love mercy, and walk humbly with your God.

The Facts are Clear

What happens when a “deal term” is non-negotiable?  Most will naturally insist that is a deal killer. Negotiation requires give and take … seeking some middle ground.  Therefore, Ukraine’s insistence on being part of NATO should have been recognized long ago as a deal killer.  Plus, insisting on terms like these sours even the beginnings of any potential negotiation.  

This whole fiasco was brought to us by Ukraine’s interest in joining NATO.  If they had not committed that sin, this would have never escalated into the war it is today.  Zelenskyy’s real intent was clear—he would not agree to peace unless security guarantees were in place, implying that NATO must accept Ukraine.

If Ukraine joins NATO, the U.S. would be bound by NATO’s collective defense agreement—an attack on one is an attack on all.

In 1962, the Soviet Union placed nuclear missiles in Cuba to counter the US’s missile lead and to protect Cuba from the US. This led to the Cuban Missile Crisis, a tense confrontation between the US and the USSR that some feared would start World War III.  Ukraine joining NATO is the equivalent of placing that kind of weaponry on the Russian border, and they reacted like the US did under the Kennedy Administration where negotiations with Nikita Khrushchev achieved compromise and peace.  Which is precisely what the Trump Administration is trying to do through diplomacy. 

Most citizens of Ukraine despise Russia but, most of the eastern cities of Ukraine would rather be part of Russia. If these facts were faced early on, there might have been a chance to negotiate … but that opportunity was lost.

So, what you witnessed was a setup. Trump and JD Vance knew that the only way to achieve peace was to strategically align, at least on the surface, with Russia. Why? Because Russia would never sign a peace treaty if Ukraine were admitted into NATO.

Zelenskyy, Putin, and Trump all knew this. Zelenskyy, thinking he had Democratic support, believed he could make this bold move on live television. But Trump and Vance saw right through it and outmaneuvered him.

Zelensky has no cards to play, and Trump called his bluff.  He must give up this war while he has a chance of negotiating a good agreement.

Normally, these card games are played behind closed doors, and the results are cosmetically presented to the public.  It is rare indeed to have the game played in plain sight on national TV.  A tribute to the current administration’s commitment to transparency and truth.

We’d be a stronger country if we came together in support of what the President is trying to do and not try to tear him down at his every move.  He usually knows more than his opponent and he is the best negotiator we will get to serve as our president.   

You may not like the game, but the winner of this hand was clearly Trump and Vance.  I hope you can see that.  Trump just avoided World War III.

Sadly, all too many are blinded by their hate for his personality and party affiliation.  He wasn’t voted in for his decorum.  The majority of Americans, and the vast majority of those who are not party loyalists, voted him in for change.  It is too early to know if he will deliver.  Time will tell.

 

Dumb and Dumber

A recent Wall Street Journal article on how students are using AI to cheat on homework and tests indicates we are in a rapid transition where our entire educational system is being hijacked by technology.  AI is permitting students to defeat the traditional learning process and lowering the level of difficulty and the intellectual content of coursework.  This of course leads to a general decline in reasoning, and worse yet, the belief that AI provides reliable truths.

Take a careful look: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/chatgpt-ai-cheating-students-97075d3c?st=CD2dHb&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

I have personally noticed that clerks in retail stores can’t make change if you give them cash, and the interest in and ability to handle demanding subjects like math and science are on a continued decline, plus our country’s scores are already low compared to others.  We were doing poorly already, and now the widespread free availability of AI is going to further degrade the learning process.

Perhaps more worrying is that we will eventually have too many who can’t function in their jobs when their electronic support systems fail.  It will be as if we were all robots, and someone turned off our power supplies. This is already true if the computers in our retail establishments go offline … the commerce system grinds to a halt.

How do we think of education in this modern context.  We saw the elimination of cursive which now makes it impossible for those students to sign their name … they must print it. I have been told by so many of our utility clients that entry-level employees are less prepared to enter the workforce than their predecessors, and they must hold remedial classes on basic skills. 

Couple this with the T Ball generational attitudes that everyone gets a trophy and that grades are classist, racist, and elitist … you get a toxic cocktail on life skill-preparation.  Fortunately, we now seem to be in a correction phase of the idea that anyone who identifies with a profession should have the right to be one.  No, it is not classist or racist that I am not a pilot … I haven’t gone through the training, and I am not capable and certainly not qualified to be a pilot.

I have heard investigations are underway into the FAA’s DEI hiring practices where it is suspected minority candidates were given answers to tests to ensure diversity quotas were met.  Even Bill Gates, a long-time advocate of DEI initiatives, has declared it has gone too far.  It’s time for the pendulum to swing back to a more balanced state and for people to not just expect but to demand high performance and excellence, and that can’t be the product of software the person uses … it has to be based upon personal competencies.

You should try this and compare it to what you used to have to do to solve equations: https://www.wolframalpha.com/  One could say this can teach you how to solve problems. But, it can also make you lazy to the point you can’t solve problems without this software.

And, finally, take a look at this WSJ article recommending that we stop using in person teaching altogether plus illustrating how Chicago’s teachers negotiated to get pay raises with no relationship to their teaching successes:

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/make-america-smart-again-technology-ai-students-education-schools-policy-5ffcc497?st=8TS5ac&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Beam me up Scotty … there definitely is no intelligent sign of life here …

Following Up from Last Week

There have been very few times in my eleven years writing Captain Obvious blogs that my post has been redeemed so quickly and decisively.  As you know, I broke with my usual weekly cadence because I felt compelled to write a recap of how I saw the Presidential address to Congress. I was appalled at what I saw and frankly how few were willing to call out the bad behavior on the part of the Democrats.  The only thing I thought was that it was mostly because they were trying to toss “fresh meat” to their supporters to bait them into believing they still were ready to fight for their causes.

I still remember how unified the Democratic Party was when Hillary ran and the party stayed united right through Biden’s presidency.  Now, they seem like wounded cornered animals all snarling at each other with fractious perspectives. I fully understand that losing the recent election so soundly sent them searching for those within their ranks to blame, but I thought the recent spate of sour grapes would naturally coalesce once again.  But, without a leader around which to do that, the up and comers are all trying to grab the spotlight, perhaps so they can be crowned the new leadership, but they have utterly fractured the party. Then, a day later, I read the article I copied here below from the NY Times and felt I had to write a follow-up blog.

We need checks and balances in our political system, and our founders knew that.  Yes, the acrimony and name-calling are an important part of the process. We have all grown up watching debate and argument and can still feel the confusion this can create when truly controversial decisions are made, such as bombing innocent civilians in Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end World War II.  Perhaps it is best when both sides of an issue can see the complexity and perplexity of these questions.

As so many of my blogs have indicated, we seem unwilling to truly listen to all sides of a situation and humbly admit it is complex.  We have the right to our opinions and the freedom to express them, but we also have the responsibility to do the right things in life as we learn from our past and consider the higher narrow road.  Democracy favors the easy roads with broad consensus driving our direction.  For all its strengths, that is also its essential weakness, and while attempting to educate the unwilling can seem a fool’s errand, we all must accept our responsibility to keep trying.

We are in a precarious position on the world stage and are not privy to the full backstory to many issues on the table.  There is the distinct possibility that we have been fed a crock about what we think we know. Time will certainly tell but remember that the victors always write the history of any situation. We like phrases like “trust but verify” but now realize how futile it is to know virtually anything for sure about what is really going on.

It sure seems like insanity to me.  Perhaps it is an addiction to power, and like alcohol and drugs is very hard to break. If Alcoholics Anonymous is right, we must at some point recognize that our success depends upon recognizing a “higher authority” who some will also call God.  We can’t break from true addictions without this recognition and daily admission and support by others on the similar journeys.  Plus, it takes positive counsel and support from others to achieve this in most cases.  We must work together as a community … not finding fault … but not enabling through listening and attesting to what works in our own lives.

Perhaps this is the right time for a new awakening not only here but around the world?

Article on The New Resistance by Lisa Lerer

Yesterday, several Democrats disavowed one of their own.

Representative Al Green of Texas had jumped up during President Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday. The lawmaker yelled that Trump had no mandate to cut Medicaid, shook his cane at the dais and refused to sit down. Eventually, the House speaker ejected him. It was a showy protest on national TV. And two days later, 10 of his fellow Democrats joined a Republican censure of him, renouncing his call for “righteous indignation and righteous incivility.”

How should Democrats resist Trump this time around? The answer isn’t clear. Eight years ago, liberal voters flooded the streets, week after week, to protest Trump’s actions on immigration, climate change and women’s rights. This time, they’re much quieter and far less unified. They lack a galvanizing leader. They’re divided over ideology, strategy and tactics. Elected Democrats aren’t sure how to battle a president whom more voters wanted than didn’t. And many of their supporters are demoralized and resigned, choosing to tune out the news altogether.

Their party is still grasping for a coherent response, and the speech on Tuesday captured their disorganization. Some Democratic lawmakers boycotted; some didn’t. Some walked out of the chamber during the speech. Others held up signs, heckled Trump and wore hot pink suits in protest. Afterward came a sober-minded official Democratic response from Senator Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, a rising star who won in a swing state.

Today’s newsletter looks at the fractured Democratic opposition to Trump 2.0. It falls roughly into four categories.

The compromisers

Lawmakers, party leaders and strategists in this group point out that Trump won the election, so clearly voters wanted some of what he was selling. Governors — such as Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Jared Polis of Colorado — have given some political ground on issues where surveys indicate popular support for Trump’s position. Think of immigration, tariffs and transgender athletes on girl’s sports teams, which California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, recently described as “deeply unfair.

Some of this approach is driven by the need of governors to work with the federal government. Before Trump took office, Newsom positioned himself as a leader of the opposition, calling a special session of the state legislature to craft lawsuits and “safeguard California values.” After the fires ravaged Los Angeles in January, he adopted a less confrontational style. For instance, he suspended provisions of some state environmental laws while he appeals to the federal government for aid.

The resisters

These Democrats — a younger and more liberal group — argue that the party must stridently oppose nearly every action taken by the administration. They want to update the 2017 strategy of outrage and protest for a new era.

Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut embodies this approach. As my colleague Annie Karni detailed last month, he assails the administration in videos on social media, posts on X, floor speeches, interviews and essays. “The case I’m making to Democrats is that we have to fight every single day,” he said on CNN’s “State of the Union” this week. “We have to be on the offensive 24/7.”

Green, the censured Texas congressman who heckled Trump, is an adherent of this view. Many others in the House agree.

The lawyers

Another set of Democratic officials believes the best place to fight Trump is in court. With Democrats locked out of federal power, the party’s 23 attorneys general have become the front line of the opposition.

They’ve already filed seven lawsuits against the administration, challenging executive actions to end birthright citizenship, freeze federal funding and other moves. The attorneys general of Arizona, Minnesota, New Mexico and Oregon even held their own town hall meeting this week in Phoenix, responding to voters in an unusual joint event.

The pragmatists

This group of Democrats argues that the party needs to find a message that works and not just reflexively oppose everything Trump does. The most extreme version was articulated by the strategist James Carville, who says Democrats should let Republicans and Trump sink under the unpopularity of their initiatives. “Roll over and play dead,” he told Democrats.

But in Congress, Democrats have largely chosen an economic focus, stressing issues like the cost of eggs, the potential of higher prices from tariffs and the threats to popular programs like Medicaid and Social Security.

Many of those championing this approach are more experienced members of Congress, like Senator Chuck Schumer, the minority leader. But not all: Slotkin, who won in a state where Trump prevailed, stuck to bread-and-butter issues during her response to Trump on Tuesday.

Wrapped within her message was a far more basic plea: “Don’t tune out. It’s easy to be exhausted, but America needs you now more than ever,” she said. “If previous generations had not fought for democracy, where would we be today?”

To her and other Democrats, there are two dire problems. Trump is one. The other is the apathy of their own voters.