Captain Obvious

I was scanning the Wall Street Journal as I do most mornings and this movie announcement struck me as interesting and a strange parallel to where we are in the energy industry on a host of levels. At first, it would appear to be just another movie about our battle with terrorists … but, I see it is the much bigger set of questions it raises. Since it hasn’t been released, it is hard to know whether the trailer represents the fullness of what it portends. Take a look for yourself and decide: Click here to view the trailer.

 
The line in the trailer I believe will prove profound is “There is a lot more at stake than what you see in this image.” Even without seeing the movie, it reminds me of the child “Newt” in the movie Aliens who when interviewed by Ripley (Sigourney Weaver) wants to go back to her hiding place. Ripley assures her “These people are here to protect you. They are soldiers.” To which Newt responds, “It won’t make any difference.” This movie is all about underestimating your enemy. Eye in the Sky appears to be more about the moral and political questions raised by modern warfare using drones and surgical weapons.

 
I scanned some of the reviews of the film and believe I am on target with my recommendation for those in the energy industry to see it, and for the reasons mentioned. Forget about the acting abilities and even the plot details. Think about the basic moral and political questions it raises here.

 
For example, when do optics matter more than long-term strategy? Is there such a thing as acceptable collateral damage, especially when it is a small girl we are talking about? Does our modern wealth of electronics and video imaging capability raise a new set of questions we frankly have not thought through?

 
If I haven’t been provocative enough, think specifically about the new world of personal information we are witnessing. We can’t stop the ever-increasing levels of the Internet of Things, which is making so much about us evident, available, quantifiable, and potentially valuable for creative solutions. However, have we thought through this new world of potential moral hazards?

 
I don’t think so. Very scary. But, it is a new world where we need to make a difference for the good, while we thoughtfully consider how to minimize collateral damage.

Have you heard people use this phrase recently? It is normally said to politely invite a listener or reader to consider something that is unusual or fanciful. The basic idea here is to soften the potential harshness of the way the conversation might otherwise sound. How gracious!

Contrast this with the news we hear each day. It seems that this form of political correctness has lost its favor with the average American. In fact, “telling it like it is” now trumps diplomacy and grace … pun intended. Today, it seems that bluster and shock therapy have taken center stage. And, if I accidentally or deliberately made you uncomfortable … well … I am not even sorry anymore.

This kind of reminds me of a Lucy phrase in the Charlie Brown series: If you can’t be right, be wrong at the top of your voice!” Ironically, some people seem to be able to get away with it. And, this reminded me of another phrase: “We can win the battle but lose the war.” Boy, we are in just such a potential place right now …

That raised my curiosity, and I researched where that phrase came from, which proved quite interesting. According to Wikipedia, it emanates from what is called a Pyrrhic victory. It is a victory that inflicts such a devastating toll on the victor that it is tantamount to defeat. Someone who wins a Pyrrhic victory has been victorious in some way. However, the heavy toll negates any sense of achievement or profit. Another term for this would be “hollow victory.”

The phrase Pyrrhic victory is named after king Pyrrhus of Epirus, whose army suffered irreplaceable casualties in defeating the Romans at Heraclea in 280 BC and Asculum in 279 BC during the Pyrrhic War. After the latter battle the armies separated; and Pyrrhus lamented that what gave him joy in his victory would utterly undo him because he had lost a great part of the forces he brought with him. There were no others there to make recruits, and he found the confederates in Italy backward. On the other hand, as from a fountain continually flowing out of the city, the Roman camp was quickly and plentifully filled up with fresh men, not at all abating in courage for the loss they sustained, but even from their very anger gaining new force and resolution to go on with the war.

The term is used as an analogy in fields such as business, politics, and sports to describe struggles that end up ruining the victor. Some recent actions on the subject of feed-in tariffs and solar incentives seem squarely in the spotlight here. Yes, the industry has to realign incentives and rates to reflect the realities of where the solar economics seem to be right now, but I do fear we are headed for a Pyrrhic victory.

 

I am certainly glad I am not a taxicab company right now.  The whole idea of Uber cutting me out of the transportation business would make me a bit crazy.  And, even if I chose to copy them, the disruption to my business would be devastating … too much change and way too quickly.

Why do conventional players in the power industry not think this is going to happen to them?  Why don’t I hear people wondering how to tap into this newfound source of low cost and flexible time and talent?  I guess, when you are the incumbent, it is pretty easy to rely on denial as your first line of defense.

I love the quip: “Denial is not a river in Egypt.”  It is also attributed to Mark Twain. It has an allure for sure, but what I notice is that it promotes intellectual laziness and that can never be a good thing for our long-term wellbeing.

Yes, I agree with the phrase “don’t sweat the small stuff,” but I fear the Uber business model is not small stuff.

What if there was a secondary market of people willing to do seemingly draconian things in their own life who could then sell their demand response to others who otherwise were under contractual requirements to respond to DR signals? Might this deepen the resource?  Might this lower the overall costs for all market participants?

Oh, that’s right; I forgot … not everyone wants lower prices for DR in the markets. Traditional taxicab companies tried to sue to stop Uber around the world and here at home.  Seems like that almost always backfires.  Embracing changes like Uber are very scary and highly disruptive.

You be the judge. Doing nothing can be a very bad decision. It is taking a position … right in the middle of the road of change. You are almost sure to get run over by someone going in either direction.

 

According to the ultimate reference for all truth, Wikipedia, the Pied Piper of Hamelin is the subject of a legend from the German town of Hamelin during the Middle Ages. The earliest references describe a piper, dressed in multicolored (“pied”) clothing, who was a rat-catcher hired by the town to lure rats away with his magic pipe. When the citizens refuse to pay for this service, he retaliates by using his instrument’s magic power on their children, leading them away as he had the rats. This version of the story spread as folklore and has appeared in the writings of Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, the Brothers Grimm, and Robert Browning, among others.

There are many contradicting theories about the Pied Piper. Some have been proposed suggesting he was a symbol of hope to the people of Hamelin, which had been attacked by plague; he moved all the rats out from the town of Hamelin, thus saving the people from the epidemic disease.

We get the phrase “pay the piper” from this story and, while rarely used in today’s conversations, most of you of my generation will immediately remember this story if I use that phrase.

Well now, isn’t that interesting.  Wouldn’t that be an interesting question for Millennials?  Do they know the story?  Would they consider it a fable or a myth?  Fables are useful stories because they illustrate truths … sometimes much deeper than we can do with real stories.  We have the fox and the grapes, the tortoise and the hare, etc.  Do we relish the art of fable telling anymore, or are we too callous to entertain them?

To me at least the art of storytelling is better than the harsh realities of today’s truths because it guides our hearts and minds for the long run.  We dream dreams and see visions of what can truly be a beautiful future.  It acts as a compass to keep us on the right course.

What I also like about stories like this is that they do not contain yelling and bashing of people.  They remind us that subtle truths require our minds and hearts to “soak in” these ideas so they permeate our perspectives and result in true balance.

We certainly need to rid ourselves of rats.  We also need to protect our customers from rats.  There is a lot of work to be done.  Perhaps we need a new flute or a better tune to play.  At Apogee, our work is devoted to developing cutting-edge tools and technology that help our utility clients build trust and stay engaged with their customers. That’s our tune and we are stickin’ with it.

 

 

Someone posted this video on my Facebook page and I believe it holds a fundamental truth about habits and instincts.

As I posted a while back, we all have a lot to learn about the way we learn to ride a bicycle. Today’s experts will all tell you that taking off the pedals will accelerate the learning dramatically … most can learn to ride in just a few minutes when you do that.

However, watch this video and realize that once you learn, your brain is wired up backwards to ride this bike. It is almost impossible to unlearn and relearn. Click here to view the video.

How many of today’s challenges are made worse because our brains are wired up from previous points of view?

I am not sure, but I would suspect we have a lot to learn from Millennials who seem to see things very differently than we do.

In fact, this election cycle is likely to reveal a lot about the way they are wired.

They seem to walk to the beat of a different drummer.

I just hope it is not a Pied Piper.

Now that will be the subject of another blog for sure.

Thanks for being part of my journey through all this.