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OK, we are more than six months into this here in the US, and you would think people would do a better job of basic math.  The CDC just announced that 6% of the COVID deaths were from COVID alone, meaning that 94% of those who died had other complications.  Of course, their death gets counted as a COVID death even though they might have died a few months later from these “comorbidities.”  I do get the concerns here on all sides.  We started this journey not taking things as seriously as we should … thanks to China and the WHO who told us that everything was OK and this thing was not contagious.  Thanks a lot!

But, now we seem to be getting this under control here in the US, winding our way through the complex process of opening this and shuttering that to manage the time before we do have a vaccine.  We do need to keep the public from thinking we have an “all clear” and we can go back to our normal lives … whatever that means anymore.

But, I can’t help but react to a USA Today article that quotes CNBC predicting we will have over 400,000 deaths here in the US by year-end.  Read it for yourself.

Let’s do a little math together.  We have had about 10 million Americans infected so far with this disease (and yes, those are the ones who have been tested so who knows how many asymptomatic ones we have as well) and we have lost about 190,000 lives as well.  So, including the stupidity of the early days where we didn’t know what we were dealing with and were told we were nuts for thinking this was dangerous, we lost about 2% of the reported cases.  Let’s hold onto that 2% and say that it is probably a worst-case average.

The past few weeks have seen the daily cases continually decline from 70,000 mid-July to 60,000 by August 1^st and then to under 40,000 by the end of August.  At this rate, we will be down to 20,000 new cases per day by the end of October, and then down to minimal levels by the end of November.  Assuming a triangle for this data we would estimate another 2.7 million infected … not good, but not a disaster either, and about another 54,000 deaths.  The last time I checked, 54 + 190 is not even close to 410,000.

By the way, even my math assumes we simply stay the course we are on … doing nothing worse, and wouldn’t it be nicer if the media gave us all praise for doing what we are doing to stem this pandemic?  Wouldn’t it be nice if the news media offered us the promise of a better future and getting back together again as we have done in the past?

Nope, that doesn’t sell papers or online views.

 

It has become apparent to me that there is more going on than what we see on the surface with all these protests.  Yes, some police have exercised bad judgment and some may harbor racist bias … but I personally believe that most are good people and are dedicated to protecting all citizens from harm.

There is something else going on here.  This has taken on a tone that feels more uncivilized than anything I have seen here.  I remember Dr. Martin Luther King, Mahatma Gandhi, Nelson Mandela, and other non-violent leaders so well.  Why is today’s media so tolerant of people showing such disrespect for law and order?  Why is it that looters are somehow now justified in their behaviors?

Nope, there has to be more going on and one movie keeps playing in my head over and over again: The Caine Mutiny.  You can google it and see the plot and fabulous actors in it.  If you remember, the ship’s captain was not operating with full faculty.  However, the act of mutiny in the Navy of that day and even now carries such stiff penalties that almost no excuse is good enough.  It doesn’t matter if the commander shows bad judgment… mutiny here and around the world is punished with the death sentence.

Hmmm.  Why might that be?  Shouldn’t people on board a ship have the right to object to what they are ordered to do?  This is too big a subject to handle in a blog, but think about it this way: there are times and places for debate.  There are processes for expressing counter points of view and filing grievances.  But, when a ship is underway and in a battle or serious situation, there are rare exceptions to following orders.

When I was 16 years old our family had taken our 16-foot runabout for a beautiful 20-mile cruise on Gardner’s Bay to Montauk Point.  It was a picture-perfect day and the four of us and our dog enjoyed the perfect weather going there.  I had been trained by the Coast Guard in small boat handling, we all had life preservers, and everything seemed perfect.  As we were enjoying lunch I looked up and saw storm clouds coming from the direction we would have to go to get home.  They were so ominous we all were in perfect agreement to leave and head back … a big mistake.

By the time we had pulled out of Montauk harbor, the waves were between 10 and 16 feet high.  My father was at the helm and he had no idea what to do in such big seas.  I had never experienced them, but I did know … I was trained to know exactly what to do, how to do it, and how to adjust to be sure we didn’t pitchpole into the oncoming seas.  My father however was not and decided to try to head to shore which would have placed us sideways to these big waves and resulted in us capsizing for sure.  I warned him but he wouldn’t listen.  Sensing no time to waste I insisted that I take the helm and he relented but was furious.  I brought the boat back safely and I believe he never forgave me … he was a military vet and I had committed mutiny.

I did the right thing.  There was no time for discussion.  But, to this day I wish things were different.  Mutiny is wrong.  Leaders should be allowed to lead.  Most of us are not privileged to know what they know as they make tough choices.

I don’t think we are witnessing protests any longer.

 

 

For those of you who might find this interesting, my Master’s in Management from RPI was in new product introduction.  As you might expect, the professors would constantly remind me of how few ideas make it through the product development cycle.  Recent statistics from companies that try to advise others on this process all have elaborate procedures, ostensibly to improve the odds of getting something to the market.

It is going to sound immodest but it is a fact that Apogee has lead the energy utility industry in software product innovation … so much so that the major conference organizers stopped issuing the innovation of the year award because we always won it.  Therefore, I think it might be interesting for you to learn why we are so good at this process and continue to lead the world in energy analytics while up against companies 100s of times our size?

The answer lies in our ability to do two things very quickly: partner with our clients on new product ideas and then kill them quickly when they fail to work as planned.  Perhaps it is our study of the failures that is most helpful here.  Failure actually is good, if you can learn something from it that helps you avoid making the same mistake in the future.

A sober analysis of failure is very hard to do.  It is painful and our human nature quickly intercedes to justify it.  You all know the stories of the three letters given to a new executive by the one they are replacing.  He says to open them in the order noted as he finds himself in trouble.  The first letter suggests he blame his predecessors.  The second indicates he should blame his subordinates.  And the third indicates he should write three letters.

Part of the problem is how we define failure.  I really like part of that as suggested by Thomas Edison:  “I haven’t failed, I’ve just found thousands of ways that don’t work.”  That gets past some of the negative.  However, it misses the deeper implications of failure which should teach us about things that can work.  Think about it, 3M researchers found a glue that wouldn’t stick … and rather than declare that a failure defined a product set that could usefully use one called post-it notes.  You can google the story for details.

We are living with some individuals who defy all odds of failure because they fail fast and learn from mistakes:  Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and my favorite of course is Steve Jobs.  None of these folks are “nice corporate style” individuals.  They all break molds and in the case of Elon come frightening close to going to jail with his open microphone sloppiness.  Stop evaluating people on their corporate look and feel.  Think about the ones who fail fast and can always see how something that didn’t work can be the basis for something else that will work.

And, just because I feel Steve Jobs summed it up so well, here is his famous advice about all those crazy people we run into in life:

“Here’s to the crazy ones. The misfits. The rebels. The troublemakers. The round pegs in the square holes. The ones who see things differently. They’re not fond of rules. And they have no respect for the status quo. You can quote them, disagree with them, glorify or vilify them. About the only thing you can’t do is ignore them. Because they change things. They push the human race forward. And while some may see them as the crazy ones, we see genius. Because the people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones who do.”

If you are trying to innovate, perhaps you are expecting this from the wrong people in your organization.

 

 

About this time of the year, all the way back in 1882, Thomas Edison’s Pearl Street Station started the first electric power utility which was on Wall Street in New York City.  Not only did Edison invent the light bulb, but his Edison Illuminating Company also designed the Pearl Street Station: the first-ever U.S. commercial central power station. The station was located at 255-257 Pearl Street in Manhattan and it was powered by coal.

Remember that … the natural gas industry viewed him as a competitor to them on street lighting.  They did not see power generation as a business as of that time, after all, it hadn’t existed as a business yet!

This original Pearl Street Station operated for eight years before it burned down in 1890. The only original dynamo that survived the fire is now kept at the Greenfield Village Museum in Dearborn, Michigan.

In addition to electricity, Edison also made use of the steam byproduct the plant generated, providing steam to local manufacturers and heat to nearby buildings.  His first start ultimately became Consolidated Edison who still operates a steam system based upon this early implementation.  This Pearl Street Station began providing electricity to 508 customers in New York and a total of 10,164 street lamps and the first inside lamps as well.  Among those electric lamps were 106 lamps at the offices of J.P. Morgan’s investment bank Drexel, Morgan & Co. Morgan had been one of Edison’s largest financial backers.

One of my prior blogs pointed out that some key investors were from the natural gas industry because they viewed Edison’s electric lamp as a competitor to their lighting business.  The more things change the more they remain the same.

This is such good advice in so many situations.  After all, you can so easily see examples where the temptation to solve complex problems  “the pursuit of the perfect becomes the enemy of the good.”  We have so many smart people who will expound on the theoretical constructs for the solution.  As I have pointed out in the past, our space agency spent millions of dollars trying to design a ballpoint pen that would write reliably in zero gravity.  The Russians simply chose to use a pencil.  I rest my case.

However, you can also offer solutions to complex problems that are too simple.  Albert Einstein is known for the advice that everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.  For the record, we are all living with advice on COVID that is too simple: keep six feet apart.

The medical community knows this is only a simple guideline.  Choral singers have been proven to throw droplets for 20 feet.  Singers in church pews are almost as powerful.  So, just forcing people to sit in alternate rows and thereby distance six feet apart in the church is doing nothing to avoid infection if you allow people to sing in the pews.

The fact is that six feet is just not adequate at all if people are not wearing masks.  If you need proof of what I am saying please watch this research: Watch the video on Facebook here. 

We seek simple answers to complex problems.  We need to rethink our answers to include more than simple guidelines.  I am personally angered by the businesses we think we can open with masks and 6-foot distancing.  I am just waiting for people to wake up and realize that it is not just about six feet and a mask.  There is also a time element for the exposure.

We should not encourage any gatherings we have not proven are safe. If you need proof of what I am suggesting, take a closer look at Israel.  They had COVID under control.  They then opened the schools and the results have been disastrous.

Einstein was right again.