Author: Captain Obvious

Perhaps you are old enough to know that miners kept canaries in the coal mines to detect carbon monoxide gases … which affect them much more than humans.  So, the miners seeing a dead bird could exit the mine before they passed out and died as well.

These are called sentinels: animals that can warn us of danger.  Some of you may have a dog who has warned you of a nearby snake or an intruder.  Many animals have much higher sensitivities to smells and sounds than we do.

Where are ours for life today?  Are they like the prophets of old … screaming at us from street corners holding placards about our impeding doom?  Are they the academics who have studied for decades and can point to things we would never have noticed?

Some call these individuals “seers” … people who can see beyond what we see.  I have been called this by my dearly departed partner, Dick Niess.  I became known in the energy industry because my stance on customer service was so refreshingly different than the “take it or leave it” mindset that prevailed.

However, my days of being a sentinel are over.  I am not getting back on that horse and certainly not going to tilt at windmills the way I did when I was younger.

For those of you who don’t remember, I was the one that pulled the plug on all that cogeneration nonsense in the 1980s.  I then pulled the plug on the ozone depletion game, developed the game to teach the industry what was going to really happen with deregulation, and then developed the parallel game for energy trading which helped the industry understand what Enron was really doing.

It has been quite a ride … but my days as a sentinel are just about over.  I have been blogging on industry issues for eight years … about 400 issues.  I appreciate the encouragement that some of you have offered, but I must admit that I think my voice is falling on deaf ears.

Please let me know if you are Ok with that.  I suspect I will only get one or two comments that I should continue at which point I guess I will rest my case.

One of my first science projects as a kid was to make a crystal radio that I would listen to using an earphone.  Perhaps you remember doing the same thing where when you were done you would touch different areas of the crystal to find a signal … and sometimes that signal was from a very distant source in another language.

Later on I learned more about how it worked, but it always fascinated me that “information” could move through thin air such great distances so freely.  At that time of course all of this information was being sent deliberately by someone in real time … there were no recordings yet that could be replayed.

So, what was the intent of these messages?  I never heard a distress call, and at the time if I had there was no way for me to tell anyone in real time.  Phones were not here yet.  The first black and white TVs were on the market and their broadcasts were in real time … and they all shut down at 11 or 12 at night.

There were only three or four channels back then to watch and doing so often involved holding the rabbit ears antenna at just the right position … and may have even required that someone continue to hold onto it to get the best signal … which at the time was at most about a 320 x 240 grayscale image.

You had to change the channels and adjust the volume by going up to the TV set … yes, and I did have to walk uphill to school both ways.  My point with all this was that it was a big deal to tune into a channel.  In a sense, it was a commitment to watch the program.

Some of the programming was absolutely ludicrous … especially the depictions of rocket ships which were crude models using sparklers spitting out sparks to simulate propulsion.  Some programming was pure adventure such as Lloyd Bridges as Tarzan or vaudeville acts like Howdy Doody.  But, it was so much better than just listening to the radio or a 78 rpm record in those days.

Everyone had to agree to watch the same thing … and back then I don’t remember that as a battle.  It became such a craze that it spawned a new type of food: TV dinners.  These were aluminum trayed full meals you could eat while watching.  I think you get the picture.  Choices were simpler.

Today’s viewers have vastly more choices … a bewildering array.  Yet, most of us do not spend a lot of time “channel surfing” to see all that is available.  We are creatures of habit tuning into the same small array.  We don’t seem to like choices … so why are so many offered?

Precisely because we are all seeking different things now.  I have occasionally viewed the shopping channels and have to wonder whether this is a form of addiction.  Things are on sale so I must need them?  They must be effective marketing methods for them to exist.  There are channels that replay some of my favorite TV from my youth … and yes, I occasionally watch those to relive my childhood.

But, the majority of the major channels now have done something almost evil in their programming.  They have decided to “take a side” on modern issues and not broadcast the news but to take an advocacy position interpreting the news.

Gone are the days of Walter Cronkite and others who simply reported what had happened that day.

Did you see the recent EPA news about new vehicle fuel efficiency standards?  Did it strike you as odd that we all would pay auto companies to make more efficient fueled vehicles?  If we want to make it attractive for customers to buy EVs we should eradicate any incentives for fueled vehicles and only offer incentives to EVs.  After all, we are defeating the consumer economics of owning an electric vehicle.

Read the Utility Dive issue and the attitudes so far here.

While we are on this point, how about removing the penalty I pay for an EV of $200 a year because, after all I am not paying the gasoline taxes that pave our roads.  That has already cost me $1,400 so far on my EV.

Elon Musk has been outspoken about this issue as part of the BBB program.  Of course, he can afford to take the high road because he has already produced so many cars.  But then again, why should we incentivize people to do this?  Why not ban the wrong types of vehicles like we did banning incandescent lamps a few years ago?  Just force people to buy the right devices.

Haven’t we learned our lesson from this COVID thing?  Didn’t we offer huge incentives to people to not work?  These are so large and perverse we have trained the US workforce to grab the easy path in life.

Part of our plan also must reflect the real-world realities of how fast we can produce these vehicles.  Placing a higher-than-normal demand on the manufacturing supply chain is pushing up all prices from the precious metals in the batteries and electronics through virtually every piece and part of the car.

Plus, this unreasonable push is also going to raise carbon dioxide levels in the near term anyway since the EV carries about 8 years equivalent of the normal car in its embodiment.

I can hardly wait for the politicians to try to explain that all this money actually increased carbon dioxide levels.  Don’t they realize this will backfire?

Oh, I forgot they don’t really care … that is why they load this kind of legislation with pork.

I am really feeling a lot like Sigourney Weaver in the second of the Alien trilogy where she was found drifting in space and after being brought back to earth to account for her actions attempting to save her crew she is being criticized for destroying an alien lifeform.

If you saw the movie you know the question she asks the review panel: “Did IQs drop sharply while I was away?”  Well, I am feeling the same question when I read all the wondrous praise for electric vehicles.

Don’t get me wrong … I have one and love it!  I am looking forward to the next long range versions too.

But, as with any idea, there are the realities of how fast technology adoption is going to take place.  Here is our government’s prediction for the US and around the world a few years ago.  They forecasted that Norway would have 100% electric vehicle sales by 2027 … a good forecast back in 2019.

So, what is the story today?  The good news is that about 90% of new car sales in Norway are electric.  But, and this is the key point in this blog, how many of all cars in Norway are electric? Remember cars last 15 to 20 years, so the existing inventory is staying on the road and will stay on the road until they are no longer economic or convenient to operate.  Pay special attention to convenient … aka long trips for which gasoline vehicles are preferred.

Statistics are hard to find, but given about 65% of all registered vehicles in Norway are electric, that means that about 35% are still fossil fueled.  And, given that most of them are being driven the longer distances, it would be fair to say that Norway is far from carbon neutral on the cars there, and that assumes the electricity being used came from renewables … which it does not.

The good news is that we are moving in the right direction.  The bad news is that we are far from even seeing the finish line … or the Norwegian line if you prefer.  😊

It seems that holidays can cause tensions within a family that are quite unhealthy.  I was always told that fish and relatives begin to stink after three days.  Well, I certainly hope this is not your experience during the holiday season or for that matter anytime in your life.

However, we all know that disparate points of view, petty jealousies, and an abundance of alcohol can become a toxic brew even at these precious times of the year.  It is against this backdrop that many people will refer to the person who mediates and conciliates these situations as the “adult” in the room.

Well then … where are the adults in the room to mediate the current polarization in the United States?  Don’t you remember what we would call these people at times in the past: statemen … OK … statespersons.  Ombudsmen … negotiators … very clever people who realized that finding middle or even higher ground was more important than the bickering that goes nowhere.

As I think about today’s world, I am struck by the lack of adults in the room.  Today’s politics are just like what we used to call a “food fight” in the cafeteria.  Both sides have resorted to bullying tactics rather than diplomacy.

What makes me crazy are those sitting on the sidelines who are just watching these food fights and waiting for the victor to emerge.  As a result, there are no adults in the room and the factions are just throwing bigger and bigger rocks at each other.

We must learn to listen more and to show mature, sound, economic leadership.  Contrary to some who think we can just print money and get our way out of this; most adults are just like you and I who run a business.  You must plan and manage.  There are always wants and desires that are beyond sound budgets and the ability to manage the details.

Planning is no accident.  Read that again a few times.  Then add the phrase doing the right thing never goes out of style.  Mature adults plan to do the right things while always considering more things than what must be done if and when we have the time and resources to do them as well.

Adults in the room pay attention to the big things like sustainability of our life here and around the world and don’t get distracted by things we can’t change.

Perhaps this was best all summarized by the serenity prayer:

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference.