Headline: Moore’s Law Is Showing Its Age

law

 

A recent Wall Street Journal article about the famous prediction of how many transistors can be put into a piece of silicon has been revised … again! And, all of us techies jump on the article wondering whether things have gotten better or worse.

 

Read it for yourself: Moore’s Law is Showing its Age 

If you can’t access the link copy and paste this URL into your browser: http://www.wsj.com/articles/moores-law-is-showing-its-age-1437076232

 

What you will quickly realize is that the law is and never really was a law in the technical realms of science or math, but simply an observation. You also finally learn that the observation is still true … albeit adjusted by the laws of economics … but just slightly.

In a world of growing technological bombardment, I guess writers have to search for ways of getting your attention. And, to their credit, they got mine. So, perhaps there is nothing new here. But, I think the editors need to read the reactions to their articles to see whether the readers believe they are newsworthy. After all, that is the reason people will read WSJ in the first place.

Asking questions like “Does homework cause cancer?” in the announcement of a news segment on nightly TV will get people to wait around to hear (or skip forward to watch) that segment, but people become jaded when fear mongering is used to get them to watch.

Perhaps we are not measuring the right things in our journalistic quest for eyeballs and ears. Maybe we also need to move to Net Promoter Score style measures? Maybe we need to find out what people really need?

No, we will persist in customer sat. A recent example in our home was ComCast told us we had to upgrade our cable box … so we agreed and they sent us the DIY kit to do that. In frustration, we gave up and agreed to the service call, only to find out that the device they sent was defective. To ComCast’s credit, they called to do a customer satisfaction survey right away, but the person doing that said they were only doing a survey … they couldn’t help at all with our complaint. And, by the way, the only questions on the survey were about the service technician being on time and being courteous and helpful. The surveyor would not take our feedback on what was really on our minds.

There are many lessons here. Do we simply want to pat ourselves on the back when we get more activities in our programs, or are we really interested in making true progress in the eyes of our customers. To do that, you at least have to be asking the right questions. And, you have to be presenting truly newsworthy information.

 

Politically Incorrect vs. Politically Efficient

correct

Our son loves to chide us when we ask him to watch the evening news by saying that the word “politics” is derived from two Latin words: “Poly” meaning many and “Ticks” meaning blood sucking parasites. He may be correct even though he may be taking some liberties with Latin.

 

 
We all have noticed how sensitive people have become to the way we say things. Well, at least most of us are sensitive to this. We now have a vocabulary of seemingly gentle ways of describing people that has evolved from being in a slower group to now being described as “challenged.”

 

 
Yes, indeed, we all have challenges. I am follically challenged instead of being described as bald. I guess I am also height challenged for my weight … I am simply too short for my weight and therefore just need to grow taller.

 

 
The bigger question is not what we call things but how we manage and improve things. And, sometimes it helps to just say what we mean to make that clear. However, when we are perfectly clear and brash, we perhaps ruin the chances for progress in political dealings.

 

 
For example, calling President Putin a “thug” may get Americans to cheer, but it does little to help us negotiate with him. Calling existing politicians stupid may be a great soundbite for the evening news, but it almost rules out the chances that the person saying this will get very far with those parties.

 

 
When I was a child we called this balancing act “tact” and being polite. We called people adept at this as ambassadors and statesmen. Individuals like this are politically efficient because they spend less time worrying about what they say than how they can elicit positive change. They are more than diplomatic … they are effective at bringing about positive change.

 

 
Seems like we should be measuring success in our system a different way than we do. Seems like the average American would like to see aspects of our country improve. But maybe the news cycle is not interested in things like this at all. They only seem to be covering the politically incorrect and not those who can be politically efficient.

 

Reach Out!

reachout

As I was winding down late one Friday afternoon, this song by the Four Tops came on my Pandora station. The words seem so appropriate today. Play it using this link and crank the volume:

Now if you feel that you can’t go on,
because all of your hope is gone,
and your life is filled with much confusion,
until happiness is just an illusion,
and your world around is crumbling down.
Come on girl reach out for me
Reach out for me.

Why is it that this speaks to us even after all these years? Yes, I can remember so many fun times when this was played in my youth, but there is more of course.

Perhaps it is because it is so powerful to reach out and be a helpful part in the lives of those around us. At this time of the year when the holidays approach and we give thanks for our blessings, we at Apogee think of all of you out there … to whom we have shared a lifetime of memories and many of whom we have shared the joy of accomplishing a goal.

What a privilege it has been, and we aren’t done. So keep reachin’ out! We thrive on cutting through the confusion and making a difference.

No Bad Idea Gets Left Behind

Find_X

It struck me that there is always something very suspicious when the government voluntarily stops doing something. Perhaps you noticed it too: there is now a new push to end “no child gets left behind.”

 
How can something with such a seemingly wonderful idea captured in a program title fall into disfavor? I hear the woes from my sister in law who has been a teacher all her life in poor schools in Alabama as well as from my lovely wife Susan. So, I guess I do understand that the idea that everyone needs to achieve a certain level of education is, at least on the surface, a noble idea. That is, until you try to make it work in practice.

 
Having graduated from a college that few would want to, no less try to get through, I can attest to the fact that they told us from the outset that 1/3rd of our class was going to get left behind and that if we didn’t want to be in that third, we had better be prepared to work very hard. I must admit that hearing that during my freshman orientation was far from encouraging given I knew I had nowhere near the preparatory education of my classmates.

 
But, maybe it is high time to realize that life skills might matter a bit more than text book skills to help us become better citizens and more productive in our society. Most of us will not have to solve math problems like the one shown here with the intuitive solution by one student shown as well to make my point.
Unfortunately, for us in the power business, many of these skills do matter and, the fact is, that the basic skills coming out of high school and even college are declining. What we assumed years ago as problem solving skills are simply not there anymore.

 
We need some better ideas to attract and train people to join and stay in our industry.

Pushing on a Rope

Pushing Rope

I have spent most of my life boating. When I was 13 living on Long Island, I had a 10-foot home built rowboat that taught me many things. I moved onto sailing a 12-foot sailfish … essentially a surf board with a sail. Lots more things to learn, including what not to do when it flips over.

One of my favorite seamanship warnings was “never put yourself in the position where you would have to push on a rope.” It seems very hard to imagine anyone would deliberately doing that, but I have to admit, there have been times when I approached a dock and didn’t consider the wind or tide I did put myself in a position like that.

So, I did some checking online to see where this wisdom started. Once again, Wikipedia had the answer. It originated with the idea of pushing on a string. If something is connected to you by a string, you can move it toward you by pulling on the string, but you can’t move it away from you by pushing on the string. It is often used in the context of economic policy, specifically the view that “Monetary policy is asymmetric; it being easier to stop an expansion than to end a severe contraction.”

According to Roger G. Sandilans and John Harold Wood, the phrase was introduced by Congressman T. Alan Goldsborough in 1935, supporting Federal Reserve chairman Marriner Eccles in Congressional hearings on the Banking Act of 1935:

 
Governor Eccles: Under present circumstances, there is very little, if any, that can be done.”

Congressman Goldsborough: You mean you cannot push on a string.”

Governor Eccles: That is a very good way to put it, one cannot push on a string. We are in the depths of a depression and… Beyond creating an easy money situation through reduction of discount rates, there is very little, if anything, that the reserve organization can do to bring about recovery.”

 
The phrase is, however, often attributed to John Maynard Keynes: “As Keynes pointed out, it’s like pushing on a string…” [3] “This is what Keynes meant by the phrase ‘Pushing on a string.'”

 

The phrase is also used in regard to asymmetrical influence in other contexts; for example, in 1976 a labor statistician, writing in the New York Times about Carter’s policies, wrote that in today’s economy, reducing unemployment by stimulating employment has become more and more like pushing on a string.

 
When will we learn from history? I think we all know the adage: if you fail to learn from history you are doomed to repeat it. Here we are.