Author: Captain Obvious

There are times when I truly wonder whether we really believe you can incentivize creativity. I hear of adult education classes on subjects like creative thinking and innovation implying it can be taught like math and science. I have even run into “ideation meetings” where the presumption is that if you put enough intelligent people in a room and facilitate a discussion about a problem, a creative solution will emerge. Frankly, I call these meetings group gropes. Creativity is more like art than science … and most people simply can’t draw.

Plus, having been in all too many of these meetings, let me remind everyone that the process of using consensus is conditioned into modern minds and will almost certainly result in the dismissal of truly creative ideas because the group simply “can’t see beyond their own perceptional difficulties.” 

Then, you run into people who think that if you present enough puzzle challenges to people they will “think outside the box.” I applaud the idea of demonstrating that most people are trapped in their thinking and have been conditioned to “color within the lines of a picture.”  But the critical thinking skill is still not going to emerge in most cases.  Most people just don’t get it.

The culmination of some of these concepts can best be summarized by the joke economists love to tell about a bus full of them that veers off the road and is heading down into a deep ravine to their certain death. Despite all this the economists are happily cheering because they believe such an intense need will certainly result in someone, or something emerging as a solution to rescue them.

So, what is my point in this blog? Let’s take Elon Musk … a brilliant person who happens to be a rare breed of innovator. Not only can he enunciate the creative idea, but he can also bring capital and people together to solve the problem. He could have simply stopped with the EV but went on to redefine rockets into space. Not all his ideas are necessarily workable immediately, but he is also not done yet. Give him time. Let him work his magic.  Don’t expect him to be popular.

Steve Jobs was another who proved the point that along with genius comes failures. This is all a part of innovation. Finding why things don’t work is sometimes more valuable than success. See Post It Notes for example … a glue that wouldn’t stick.

Our modern attitudes about success trick us into thinking the process of innovation is just like a production model, implying you just push for speed and use incentives to get people to pull together. No, you stop and consider what you have learned that didn’t work and then move forward trying different ideas.
We seem to believe we have already found the right ideas and all we need is to push harder. No, we need to step back from the situation and listen to the few people who truly are critical thinkers. Most of them are not raising their hands in the air to gain attention, so they just sit on the sidelines.

Why? Because most people today are more interested in shooting them down, rather than listening and working together to make things work. Why risk your inner peace trying to help the current band of ideologues and their fantasies?

Engineers are trained to be especially careful defining the problem we are asked to solve. In all too many cases, we have to dig deeper to see what lies behind that problem that may be the root cause, rather than to plough ahead chasing symptoms. That is where we are today. We are chasing symptoms and then voting on a batch of bad ideas thinking we have picked a winner. Albert Einstein said it best:

“It’s not that I’m so smart, it’s just that I stay with problems longer.”

My recent blog on searching for truth prompted me to take a deeper dive into what likely underlies the problems we all have when we say we are seeking the truth. Intellectuals know the root problem is most often confirmation bias which, according to Wikipedia, is “the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one’s prior beliefs or values.  People display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information, or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes. The effect is strongest for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply entrenched beliefs.”

Therefore, since AI uses written and numeric data from the real world, how can it detect confirmation bias, and if it can’t, isn’t it going to recommend biased results?  Plus, if the consensus on something is what AI is going to spit back at us, how do we train it to also offer contrary opinions, so we know the full story? Here are some excellent suggestions from the University of California at Merced:

“Confirmation bias can lead to miscommunications, escalating conflicts when key pieces of information are overlooked. Consider these three ways to counter confirmation bias to improve your communications, relationships and work product:

Focus on falsification bias – Confirmation bias can be a strong influence, so you will need to actively look for evidence that disproves your point of view.

Get a different perspective – Get out of your echo chamber. Approach someone you know who sees things differently from you and ask them what they are seeing. Be open to their ideas and try to explore them.

Talk with an outside party – Approach a coach or someone you trust to help you impartially explore your thoughts and beliefs without judgment.”

Well now isn’t that interesting. The key to maturing our thinking and avoiding errors in seeking truth is that we should be listening to others, especially those who disagree with our points of view. Seems like we are back at the same conclusion I recommended in my prior blog. Listen to voices that disagree with our preconceived ideas … listen … question … don’t argue. Let the diversity of thought soak in … deeply.

Now, let’s look at how AI coupled with social media can concoct a toxic cocktail. Again, from Wikipedia we learn that confirmation bias is amplified using filter bubbles, or “algorithmic editing”, which displays to individuals only information they are likely to agree with, while excluding opposing views.

Some have argued that confirmation bias is the reason why society can never escape from filter bubbles, because individuals are psychologically hardwired to seek information that agrees with their preexisting values and beliefs. Others have further argued that the mixture of the two is degrading democracy—claiming that this “algorithmic editing” removes diverse viewpoints and information—and that unless filter bubble algorithms are removed, voters will be unable to make fully informed political decisions. Therefore, our search for truth is hard work since we are fighting against both internal and external temptations to seek confirmation for what we already believe.

May our new year be filled with new and loving insights as we learn to listen to each other better. That should be a resolution we can keep if we really care at all.

Diversity, Equity and Inclusion … aka DEI … seems like such an obviously good idea.  How can you argue with that principle. Well, just like the Inflation Reduction Act, which did exactly the opposite, the devil is always in the details. 

There are times when you listen to something and pause because it strikes you as profound. That happened when Susan and I were watching an old episode of Madam Secretary where a reporter was writing an exclusive article about the Secretary of State and was shadowing her through a few days of her work and personal life. He attends dinner at her home, interacts with the kids, and then enters this conversation with her husband Henry who is a theologian and professor of theology at the War College in DC.

Henry McCord: “You know, I’ve read a lot of your work. You’re very good at uncovering injustice.”

Reporter: “It keeps me busy.”

Henry: “Let me ask you something. Do you ever think that sometimes you find dishonesty and hypocrisy because you’ve already decided it’s there?”

Reporter: “Well, I prefer to think of my work as a search for the truth, right?”

Henry: “Well, then, as a Catholic, I would have to say we’re both searching for something elusive, unreliable, and prone to bias for a story we’d like to believe.”

I asked Susan to pause the video after exclaiming that this was profound, we rewound it several times for me to write the interchange above down. Please reread this carefully.

I think we are all searching for the truth, but how often do we remind ourselves that it is elusive, unreliable, and prone to bias? How often do we consider carefully the testimonies of so many in the world, in our lives, and within ourselves and admit that we see through a mirror dimly as the apostle Paul says and that we are looking at the knotted side of the tapestry in Corrie Ten Boom’s model of life’s mysteries.

Social media coupled with AI are feeding us things that we want to see and hear. The result may be good for the marketers and politicians behind these actions, but they are driving us away from carefully listening to one another.

Shiny pennies grab our attention. Clickbait makes us click on things that are not what they were claimed to be. Our attention spans are shrinking as we are bombarded by messaging specifically designed to capture our time online.  I’d like to believe that a pill would restore my hair, flexibility, and strength of my younger years. It is hard to resign yourself to the reality that stories about that are false.

We should be approaching each day with a special sensitivity to those with whom we have important relationships. And as we face it with our eyes and ears wide open, we should be wise like Henry recognizing our limits to know the truth even though we seek it intensely.

For those of you who want an excellent explanation of the root problem, please take a close look at the graphic at the beginning of this blog which has two lights shining on a cylinder in such a way that one wall appears to show it as a square and the other as a circle.  Both views are true, but the best insights come when you step back and see the whole picture.  (And a bonus question for the geeks out there … email me and tell me what the true color is for the cylinder itself?)

The key to better conversations seems to rely on humility and a sincere interest in learning more by listening.  I was struck by a recent Frank Bruni article in the New York Times and the author of the book “The Age of Grievance.”  This snippet from the Times says it all in my humble opinion:

“And I’m going to repeat one phrase more often than any other: ‘It’s complicated.’ They’ll become familiar with that. They may even become bored with it. I’ll sometimes say it when we’re discussing the roots and branches of a social ill, the motivations of public (and private) actors and a whole lot else, and that’s because I’m standing before them not as an ambassador of certainty or a font of unassailable verities but as an emissary of doubt. I want to give them intelligent questions, not final answers. I want to teach them how much they have to learn — and how much they will always have to learn.”

I hope this holiday season offers you many opportunities to savor the elusive, unreliable, and biased world all around us as we remind ourselves once again of the “reason for the season.”

Do you remember the story of the Pied Piper of Hamelin? It is an old fairy tale about a musician who was hired to rid the town of rats by charming them with his flute playing. But, when the townsfolk refused to pay him as they had promised, he exacted his revenge by leading all the town’s children away as well. Is Taylor Swift a modern-day Pied Piper? I suggest we take a closer look at Swifties: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swifties

Outside of this group, it seems that most Americans don’t have the appetite for and interest in seriously paying attention to anything. We seem to be a sea of mindless and braindead citizens following whatever grabs our limited attention? The movie Idiocracy is on point. Our culture is so riddled with soundbites and frenetic messaging scientists now claim our attention span has dropped from about 2-3 minutes 50 years ago to something less than 8 seconds. Watch how short modern commercials are compared to when you were young.

I personally believe the lengthy exposure of screen time with its toxic soup of videogames, social media, and AI generated personalized content addicts us and capturing our eyeballs and is a part of why today’s children and young adults have higher incidents of ADHD and other difficulties. I grew up without TV since it hadn’t been invented yet. I had a radio and could read books. Of course attention spans then were longer and necessary.  Against this backdrop, I suggest you look carefully at the behaviors of Taylor Swift concert goers. The following extended video summary of her recent tour is chilling:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/music/2024/12/05/taylor-swift-eras-tour-reporter-personal-journey/76711565007/

If you watched even a small part of the video segment, and you are a conservative older person you probably will say it reminds you of the Beetles Tour or Elvis Presley. Yes, in some ways that’s true, but the size of the crowds and the range of audience demographics should be a wake-up call to anyone in modern marketing. Plus, the way Taylor Swift creates community experiences is a Harvard Case Study in modern social interactions.

If you just watched the referenced video and shrugged your shoulders in disgust, you are vulnerable to those who know what has happened and why. If you can’t figure it out, hire the ones that have … or you are toast in this new world. Curiosity may have killed the cat, but it is your key to success in how others are redefining brand identity, awareness, and loyalty. Her fans are fanatics. She has not merely upped the game … she has reinvented it.

Here is an article summarizing how fans felt about her 3.5 hour concert: https://wapo.st/4fi6dRq The formula she used to connect with such a wide-ranging audience not only delivered the experience of a lifetime, but it also moves these same individuals to be in an ongoing relationship to her.

Look at the financial impact of this. It is not just about her ticket sales that have redefined the online ticket selling business because of its intensity. Look at the impact on the local economy in the chart below summarizes. She generates about ten times more than the prices of her tickets … which are also incredibly high … bordering on the absurd:

If you are hungry for more economic impacts, take a look at this article in the WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/economy/taylor-swift-fan-economic-impact-eras-tour-revenue-a9c00005?st=E1Wonm&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

It is so easy to just dismiss this young lady or to chalk this up to an otherwise bored modern youth element. No … there is something profound going on here. Her fans know the words of her songs and sing along during the 3+ hour concert. Their antics actually create seismic impacts!  When I started my engineering career we studied the Tacoma Narrows Bridge failure. Could a new rating for safety now include a Taylor Swift Concert rating?

So, if you don’t know what’s been happening and why … you may soon be “paying the Piper!”