Be wary of any politician or corporation that makes promises so far into the future that the individuals making them are very likely gone. It is sobering to look to the past and reconcile promises made decades ago about almost anything and square them up with where we are today. I can tell you from firsthand experience, the odds are against any form of accuracy.
Some trends are certainly persistent, but the pace of change is always elusive. Before Steve Jobs changed everything in personal electronics, few would have forecast the expansive range of his innovations. Xerox management’s inability to understand the future of paper copiers stands as a stark reminder that we tend to see what we want to see in the future.
So, when CEOs of car companies talk about 2030 and beyond, you should take anything they say with a grain of salt. I tried to warn all our clients about the claims of the Nikola startup about their trucks and how they were going to revolutionize that market. Car and Driver has an excellent summary: https://www.caranddriver.com/nikola
Aspirational goals are always interesting and welcomed in most situations. Who would want to argue with raising the standard of living for all, affordable food, housing, education, and healthcare. Let’s add in peace on earth and make the world safe for everyone.
The reality is quite a different matter. The devil is in the details. Things are never as easy as they seem, nor as cheap as promised. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t dream and follow our dreams, but it should make us pause when someone gets in front of us and makes bold promises of sweeping change.
I still remember my college professor’s admonition about forecasting the future. He called it the “seer sucker theory” … which he explained as for every person who believes they can see into the future, there will always be suckers who believe them.
Transitions are often quite slow. Even when something is clearly a better alternative, those who are comfortable with what they have are rather unlikely to switch, and those who haven’t are generally slow to adopt. These are called market penetration half lives … the time it takes for half of the market to adopt an idea. These half lives are most often decades long.
Electronics is one of the shortest … 2-5 years, so there is always the possibility of rapid market adoption there. Energy systems like heating cooling and ventilation equipment are decades. We only have about 5-6 years before we hit 2030 … therefore promising anything much more than a small adoption by that time is without precedent.
Politicians of course want you to believe they can work miracles and who doesn’t want something for nothing. But remember my “seer sucker theory” comment. Who then is being played for a sucker? Right … you should be angry and vote accordingly.
