New Year Reckoning

The one thing we in the energy industry know is that senior leadership is dominated by the accounting of their business.  Customer satisfaction is often included in the key performance indicators, and reliability is watched for its implications on that as well as due to its operational costs.  However, the bottom-line results are usually the key metrics.

I am waiting with bated breath for the results to be reported early this next year.  Clearly 2021 was a year of recovery from 2020 but 2020 wasn’t as bad for many as first thought.  Residential loads were and are increasing.  Office space has been decimated with the work at home impacts.  We moved most of our manufacturing offshore so that is not coming back except for the occasional flag waving situation.

This past year will probably evidence the sea change in longer term energy use patterns … or will it?

The politicians are all gleefully patting themselves on the back about the future of EVs but supply chain issues will certainly limit the actual increases and disappoint them.  Americans are still in love with their fossil fueled choices and the freedom to make quick pitstops still dominates the landscape.  Sure, surveys indicate people would like an EV but only for around the town driving … so how is that going to reduce the fuel use in the US.

Nope, even the EIA predicts fuel use will go unchecked in the next five to ten years.

It has been interesting to watch how stock prices for electric utilities that promote solar and wind have been trading at a premium over the typical bricks and mortar energy companies.  The accountants will all attest to the simple fact that rooftop solar is far less economically efficient than solar farms.  How will the net metering battles across the US settle out?  Will the regulators agree with the accountants?

Or is this an ideological battle that goes beyond accounting?  Is this truly an existential situation where the fate of our planet is at stake?  If that is true, shouldn’t the accounting be on carbon dioxide rather than corporate economics?  And if that is true, shouldn’t we be managing our transition toward a renewable energy source with consideration of how much the climate benefits from the near term.

Finally, do we really believe what we do here is going to make a big difference around the world when India and China have kicked the can down the road.  How cost effective will energy policies I hear being promoted actually pen out when the accounting is done.

There is one thing for sure.  This year and next will report energy companies hit or exceeded their targets … I just wish they hadn’t moved those targets to get those results.

Happy New Year

Did Chevrolet Have to Make America Cry with this new Christmas Ad?

Read the following Originally Seen on RedState, Dec 16, 2021 10:00 AM ET By Joe Cunningham  Full Article Here

I am not sure who told Chevrolet that what we really needed this Christmas was to ugly cry over an ad they produced for the holidays, but whoever it was needs to go sit in the corner and think about what they’ve done. You may have seen the shortened version of this ad, titled “Holiday Ride,” on TV.

But you don’t get the full emotional impact without seeing the extended four-minute version, which is a tear-jerker and hit me harder than listening to my child ask me why Mufasa wasn’t waking up. View the full video here. 

All the jokes aside, this ad is possibly one of the most needed and uplifting messages of the Christmas season — a season in one of the toughest years Americans have faced. Still reeling from COVID-19 and an economic collapse, we have watched as division and partisanship grew, the negative media coverage got worse, people were unable to get back to work, and inflation and shortages have had families struggling.

And this is all on the heels of a divisive presidential election and a pandemic that has taken our family members and loved ones and kept us separated for (in some cases) over a year.

At a time when all this is going on, this Chevy commercial comes out. It is a message about remembering loved ones and spending the time we have with them. It is, at its heart, a secular but great reminder that this time of year is about our families.

Here, you have a man who appears to have recently lost his wife. In an old barn is her old convertible, covered in dust and clearly unused. It’s an emotional moment as the memories flood back. His daughter sees that he’s struggling, so she goes to their small town auto repair shop and asks for help. They sneak in one night, load up the car, and then restore it. The dad sees the restored car, gets emotional, and drives up to his daughter, who begins to cry as she says “It’s what mom would’ve wanted.”

And it’s at that point that you’ll feel that familiar tingle in your eye, if you haven’t already.

A man lovingly remembers his wife. A daughter sees a father struggling. A community comes together to help one of their own. And an emotional reunion. Also, a dog.

We are a little over week away from Christmas, and now more than ever, we need to stop and remember what’s most important. Yes, we have political battles to fight. But for a few moments, let’s also remember that our families need us for more than fighting those battles. They need us to just be there for and with them.

Merry Christmas.

 

 

The Emperor’s New Clothes

You remember this children’s story by Hans Christian Anderson:

According to Wikipedia, two swindlers arrive at the capital city of an emperor who spends lavishly on clothing at the expense of state matters. Posing as weavers, they offer to supply him with magnificent clothes that are invisible to those who are stupid or incompetent. The emperor hires them, and they set up looms and go to work.

A succession of officials, and then the emperor himself, visit them to check their progress. Each sees that the looms are empty but pretends otherwise to avoid being thought a fool. Finally, the weavers report that the emperor’s suit is finished. They mime dressing him and he sets off in a procession before the whole city.

The townsfolk uncomfortably go along with the pretense, not wanting to appear inept or stupid, until a child blurts out that the emperor is wearing nothing at all. The people then realize that everyone has been fooled. Although startled, the emperor continues the procession, walking more proudly than ever.

Well, what’s my point?  We are about to see the carbon dioxide levels rise once again and even faster than before because of the silliness of the current policies to abate them!  The adoption of electric vehicles brings forward carbon for about eight years of normal vehicle driving due to the carbon released in the production of the batteries.  All these solar panels and wind turbines do the same, and the economy has returned to normal after the pandemic and industry is trying to catch up with demand.

Another year from now, all this money being poured into the market building more EVs, solar and wind intensifies the situation steepening the rise in carbon levels:  the townsfolk uncomfortably go along with the pretense, not wanting to appear inept or stupid.

Yep, that says it all now, doesn’t it?  Oh, and could it be that they stand to profit from all this in the short run?  Perhaps you remember some prior scams perpetrated on the world under the guise of science?  Do you remember the ozone scare conveniently timed to outlaw existing refrigerants when Dow’s patents ran out?

Susan and I were speaking at an energy efficiency conference with Larry Spielvogel and several others where the acronym WASTE was coined: Welfare Act for Scientists, Technologist and Engineers…the people being paid to study and draw conclusions for us.  It is a great economic punchbowl for government waste into which people place their straws attempting to suck out as much as they can before the game is called due to being ridiculous.

Can you hear that sucking sound?  If not, you will shortly.

Modern Dietary Laws?

I grew up in a Jewish home where I learned to know that we weren’t supposed to eat ham, shrimp or lobster … but we did … well … not on the holidays of Passover or Chanukah.  Perhaps that is why I thought it was hilarious when I saw the pictured announcement of a Kosher ham in the supermarket.

To that point, a friend at my church asked me whether I was uncomfortable serving bacon to 600 people at a morning breakfast event called “Pastor’s Pancakes?”  I replied, “not half as much as not charging for it!”

The origins of these dietary laws can generally be traced to healthy diets.  Outlaw the stuff that leads to diseases and people will live longer and better.  Some of the Kosher laws were especially prescient for times when refrigeration and other forms of food preservation were not available.

But now that we are living in a world with so many people, we are looking at the very real questions of whether we can meet the needs of a growing population with safe drinking water and food.  Hence, the serious interest in plant based protein substitutes.

However, the average American is in love with their burgers and when President Biden even suggested we cut down by one a month we saw outrage.  How to we move towards a more sustainable diet?  Do we outlaw some foods, ration others, or possibly begin the gradual hard work of reeducating people to turn over the demand curve?  None of these seem realistic.

We do live in a free society where choices about food and drink are left to the markets.  If lobster was $100 a pound fewer people would eat it.  So, you could tax this, much like cigarettes … yet all too many people still choose to smoke.

You could restrict water use so that the free markets do a better job of deciding what and where they grow food … that would help out enormously in the Western US because the water use laws there fail to reflect the value.  But, I don’t think I am surprising anyone by suggesting that attempting to restrict water use out west is likely tilting at windmills, even though it is absolutely the right idea.

How are we going to manage our food and water supplies?  These are really tough questions, and they will impact our society a lot more than worrying so much about our carbon and methane emissions.

So, why are we so proud of passing almost meaningless and costly climate legislation?  Is it perhaps because we do not have the political will to tackle meaningful issues?  Or, is it because those in politics know they have no large or powerful constituencies to just do the right thing any longer?

Least Cost Carbon Accountability

It seems like only yesterday that the electricity industry faced a supply side crisis.  Every time they built a new power plant it was more and more costly.  So, at the prodding of Amory Lovins and others the world considered demand (consumer energy use) side alternatives to the supply side bias that dominated energy company planning.

The mathematical framework was called least cost planning or integrated resource planning and included an expanded portfolio of alternatives which for the first time included energy efficiency.  They were right… it was far less expensive to consider helping and paying some of the cost of customer energy efficiency upgrades than to build power plants.

But, there were other efforts as well included in the plans… like improving the efficiency of things consumers bought.  Through these efforts refrigerators were designed that used only about 25% of the energy and lighting energy was reduced to about 5-10% of the historical energy consumption.

The impacts of all these changes have been a significant positive on our energy use.  And, along the way the early investments in solar and wind have now matured and become cost effective to include in the supply side of the equation. Batteries are coming along and will certainly be an increasing member of the portfolio.

So, here we are after all these years and we now have another metric to include in our math: carbon.

Well then, the first step is to define the accounting of that as a member of the portfolio.  We should consider the carbon emitted by the operation of the device along with the carbon footprint for the production of the device itself along with the carbon footprint for the recycle or disposal.

Really… is that really the right question any longer?  Shouldn’t we ask what the alternative is to even have that at all?

It seems we have to go back to the planning basics for society itself including whether we need to control populations.  China did that for years and has recently changed its policy, but the single child policy was law for decades.  Are we going to consider this option?  After all, we have to plan for the water, food, education, and protection of people in our modern society.

No Joel… we can’t touch that in our free society with life liberty and the pursuit of happiness as our bedrock for decisions.

Well then, we need to define what it means to have a home for people to keep them off the streets and to feed, cloth and keep them healthy.  Are the methods we use today sustainable over time or do we need to rethink how we design communities?  Isn’t that more responsible than just thinking we can build the energy and infrastructure to perpetuate our previous assumptions?

No Joel… we tried asking people to eat one less hamburger and that blew up in our faces.  We know that a vegan diet is healthier but see the previous statements about life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.  We can’t ask people to change behaviors like this.

Then, we better be prepared to spend a lot more money to solve the problem.